If the price of oil stabilizes, most businesses anticipate a 2 percent to 3 percent increase in revenues. A wild card could be the tourism industry, which relies on planes, trains and ships.

“I am cautiously optimistic with a bit of anxiety,” said Ron Peck, president and chief operations officer for the Alaska Travel Industry Association. “Advance bookings are good, the cruise industry looks solid, but over the road tourism will be affected by fuel pricesÉ If the economy goes sideways on us it could affect how people take their vacations.”

Long haul driving with recreational vehicles decreased this year and should continue to decrease as the price of fuel increases.

“RV traffic is off, which we believe is due to fuel prices,” Peck said.

On a positive note, Peck predicts the weakening U.S. dollar will drive tourists from Europe and Canada in our direction.

“14 percent to 15 percent of our visitors are international. The dollar is weak; that gives them more spending power,” he said.

The cruise industry will have to take a wait-and-see approach with new legislation coming out of Washington, D.C., that may change how foreign flagged vessels visit ports-of-call, according to industry consultants.

Aviation

Commercial passenger carriers are awaiting a decision from the U.S. Postal Service that may adjust their flight schedules and service frequency if a proposal to move rural hubs is implemented.

The U.S. Postal Service is proposing changes to the bypass mail system that could cut $7 million a year from the cost of the program. The USPS issued a proposal to relocate the bypass mail hubs from larger rural communities like Bethel to much smaller villages such as Anaktuvuk Pass. The problem is many of the small villages on the postal service list don't have the infrastructure to accommodate the aircraft used to move the mail.

Both carriers and members of the Alaska Air Carriers Association said moving the hubs may cause regional carriers to downsize their aircraft due to infrastructure challenges. Those challenges include short runways and no fuel or maintenance services at airports.

Villages included in the proposal are Anaktuvuk Pass, Holy Cross, Kiana, Point Hope, Sand Point, Shishmaref, Togiak, Eagle, Hooper Bay, Pilot Point, Red Devil, Tanana, Wainwright and Savoonga. Chevak also asked to be listed as a hub.

Passenger service on flights to and from the proposed hubs could increase by frequency but surrounding villages would suffer, according to carriers. The outlying villages would have to be serviced from the new hubs for the mail service to subsidize passenger flights.

Changes in airline ownership could positively affect travel should two major regional airlines join to offer service between hubs and the smaller villages.

Era Aviation estimates it will see a 2 percent to 3 percent increase in passenger traffic since Fairbanks and Bethel will now be listed as destinations.

Traffic to and from the North Slope in winter and early spring could increase due to continued exploration and the construction that supports it.

Peninsula Airways was the beneficiary of North Slope work by adding flights from Anchorage and Fairbanks to Prudhoe.

“We are going to do fine,” said Danny Seybert, president of PenAir. “Most of our business comes from the fishing industry, so when they have a good year, so do we.”

According to industry officials, service between Alaska and Seattle will remain at current levels unless the U.S. economy takes a dip, which could scare tourists away.

Most cargo carriers foresee 2008 as a positive year.

“There is no crystal ball that we use,” said Mike Bergt, general manager for Alaska Cargo Express.

Bergt says that his company uses previous years to set their budgets.

“How we do will depend on mining, and the Dutch A (pollock) season for fishing,” said Bergt.

Bergt didn't foresee rural Alaskan's switching from bypass mail to airfreight yet.

“It's too soon to say what will happen with that,” he said.

But Northern Air Cargo said the USPS model change from flying mail from Fairbanks to Barrow to trucking it up the Dalton Highway cost $900,000 in lost revenue and expenses this year.

Despite its losses, NAC seems to have recovered after taking delivery of their Boeing 737s.

“We are doing better than anticipated,” said Bill Fowler, president and CEO of NAC. “We've captured 4 percent of the market - that's a first for us.”

Fowler said the all-cargo airline is doing well and that he sees a positive year ahead.

“This is the first time we have made money in the winter since 2002,” Fowler said. “And that was a year when we had a very lucrative defense contract flying to Shemya.”

Trucking

Aves Thompson, executive director of the Alaska Trucking Association, said the biggest issue facing Alaskan trucking firms is the continued use of ultra-low sulfur diesel.

“We are going to keep a close eye on this issue, should trucks start hauling ULSD fuel to Prudhoe Bay,” said Thompson.

The decision by North Slope oil operators to cancel construction of a $300 million refinery modification because of a change in tax law will result in ultra-low sulfur diesel being trucked to the Slope.

The move could add as many as 75 heavy fuel trucks a day on the Dalton Highway to the North Slope and on other parts of the state's road system, according to trucking industry officials.

Plans for the plant were dropped after North Slope oil producer ConocoPhillips was denied tax credits for the construction during the recent special session on oil taxes.

Marine cargo

As infrastructure improvements progress at the Port of Anchorage, both Totem Ocean Trailer Express and Horizon Lines continue to provide more than 95 percent of the big box store items to Southcentral Alaska.

While these businesses didn't reveal their gross cargo figures, both indicated they expect flat growth in 2008.

The Alaska Railroad Corporation was likewise guarded about the coming year's business. “We are cautiously optimistic that 2008 will yield increased passenger ridership, but feel the freight market will be flat,” said Alaska Railroad spokesman Patrick Flynn.

The Railroad projects that its passenger and freight business combined will add up to $110 million for 2007.

“We have seen record growth in the passenger segment aspect of our business the last few years,” Flynn said.

The railroad counts each leg of a rider's trip as a segment. For example: Anchorage to Talkeetna is one segment, and the ride from Talkeetna back to Anchorage is counted as another.

The Alaska Railroad moves over half a million passenger segments yearly, or 563,000 ridership segments to be exact.

On the freight side, six million tons of freight were moved on the rail system in 2007. Similar figures are expected for 2008. Flynn said predicting freight business is difficult but the passenger numbers are directly related to advertising and marketing.

New to the railroad are two flag-stops offered at Spencer Glacier that came online this past summer.

“We are also adding two new Gold Star coaches on the line in 2008 which will add to our capacity, and access the flag-stop business,” said Flynn

Whatever happens in 2008, Alaska's economy should hold its own according to those polled.

“I remember the recession in the 1980s,” said Seybert. “I was living in Bristol Bay and we heard all this bad stuff about business and the U.S. economy, but it didn't seem any different to us. We still flew and had plenty of work.”