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Greg Wolf, the director of the Division of International Trade and Market Development, said trade revenues are projected at $2.6 billion, about 10 percent of the state's income, for 2002. He added that the same is expected to hold true for next year, when trade could generate between $2.6 billion and $2.65 billion.
"All-in-all, I think we're ending up the year on a pretty good note," Wolf said. "When weighing the strengths and weaknesses of our markets and exports, we're projecting that 2003 should only go up."
China is expected to lead the way in that increase, said Chuck Becker, the director of the Alaska Export Assistance Center.
Wolf noted that the Eastern nation's projected annual growth, estimated at 7 to 8 percent for the foreseeable future, could mean new opportunities for Alaska's faltering fish markets.
Through the third quarter of 2002, Alaska seafood exports to all markets were up about 12.5 percent and represent more than $1 billion of the projected trade revenues, Wolf said.
"It's encouraging that the international market is interested in the Alaska seafood industry," Wolf added. "We look to China to keep growing. It's going to be an increasingly important market in terms of seafood exports."
China is currently Alaska's fifth-largest trading partner, but Wolf predicted that the country will move to fourth by the end of the year. Japan and Canada also ranked among the state's strongest exchanges, and economic growth of 5 percent to 6 percent in South Korea could provide new opportunities for Alaska's exporters in the coming year.
Trade revenues from minerals and refined fuel products also increased over calendar year 2001, Wolf said. Fertilizer and wood products rounded out the state's top five exports for 2002, but both registered decreased numbers from the previous year. Wolf, however, said there is "cautious optimism" that those markets could make a come-back in 2003.
"There could be a change in terms of the gas supply for the production of fertilizer," he said, "and (Outside) mines are shutting down, which could mean increased reliance on Alaska's mines."
Internal influences, including a new governor, could also have an effect on Alaska's trade in 2003. On Jan. 1, Wolf will move from his current post at the Division of International Trade and Market Development to that of the executive director of the World Trade Center Alaska.
Becker said he anticipates forming a close alliance with the division's new director, and enhancing his relationship with the trade center through Wolf. That, he said, could open Alaska's doors to even more trade opportunities.
"I think if we put together a strategy for increasing exports, then we should be able to do it," he said.
"China has enormous potential for us," he said.
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