Alaska's economy will basically tread water over the next year - jobs and business activity are expected to be down, though not like other states - but a positive decision on any one of a number of pending developments could add a big boost in business confidence, which in itself would stir growth through renewed investment.

At the top of the list is what North Slope natural gas producers will decide in making commitments during the open seasons held by the two competing gas pipeline consortiums, the BP and ConocoPhillips Denali group, as well as the TransCanada and ExxonMobil partnership.

Open seasons are periods during which pipeline developers solicit hard-dollar bids for capacity in their pipelines. If there is enough capacity bid by gas shippers the pipeline company knows it can proceed.

It's considered unlikely there will be enough firm capacity bid in 2010 to allow either pipeline project to proceed immediately, but the completion of updated cost estimates and the submission of even conditioned bids - the first serious commitments by producers - will be important milestones.

Decisions on big mining projects will also be coming. One most likely coming early in the year is for Barrick Gold and NovaGold Resources, partners in the big Donlin Creek gold project near the Kuskokwim River, to apply for state and federal permits for a large mine.

The companies have been conducting drilling, engineering, environmental and technical feasibility work for several years, and the step to apply for permits in an important one. A big unresolved issue is how to get affordable energy to the mine.

The companies now plan to generate power with diesel, but that would require shipping large volumes of fuel to the site by river barge and truck, and the potential for fuel spills is worrisome to some.

If Donlin Creek proceeds, however, it will be one of the nation's largest gold mines and will provide a major economic boost in a part of the state that is short of jobs. If major new infrastructure were established to provide energy it would also benefit the region.

The same holds true for the big Pebble copper/gold project near Illiamna. Two partners in Pebble, Anglo American and Northern Dynasty Minerals, are also at an advanced stage of exploration, environmental and feasibility work that will continue through 2010.

A decision to apply for permits, a major milestone for Pebble as well as Donlin Creek, could come late in the year. It will give Alaskans their first opportunity to see the kind of mine that could actually be developed at Pebble because the mine design will be submitted with the permit applications.

If Pebble is developed, it would also provide a major source of jobs and business opportunities in a part of the state that is economically distressed. Also like Donlin Creek, affordable energy is a challenge for Pebble, and if new infrastructure is built - long distance electrical transmission line, for example - it could benefit the entire Bristol Bay region.

Other key decisions in 2010 will be approvals by government agencies, mainly the U.S. Minerals Management Service and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, on Shell Oil's proposal to drill exploration wells in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

Court decisions will also weigh in on this because almost every major government decision is almost always is or will be litigated in federal courts.

Offshore exploration is important because production is declining from existing North Slope fields and prospects are dimming for major new onshore North Slope discoveries. The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge seems as off-limits now as it has ever been.

Attention currently has shifted to offshore areas as the best hope for developing new oil and keeping the trans-Alaska oil pipeline in operation. That is important because it will allow continued production from onshore fields on state-owned lands.

Shell's best prospects in the Beaufort Sea are in the Camden Bay area east of Prudhoe Bay, and because an onshore pipeline will be built by the ExxonMobil Corp. and its partners in the nearby Point Thomson field, Shell would be able to build pipelines to shore and ship any oil discovered to market through infrastructure that is mostly developed.

Beaufort Sea oil is the best bet for halting the decline in oil being shipped through the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System.

In the long run, the work by Shell, ConocoPhillips and other companies who have won leases in the Chukchi Sea could create a major new U.S. producing region that could rival the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, federal geologists believe. Its development would require pipeline built across the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, a huge region that is still lightly explored. Having a pipeline built and paid for by Chukchi Sea discoveries would make development of even small or medium-sized discoveries in the NPR-A possible.

Tim Bradner can be reached at

tim.bradner@alaskajournal.com.