Coastal erosion isn't the only climate-related problem confronting rural communities.

Health officials now are concerned about food and water safety in northern villages as warming temperatures thaw ice cellars and melting permafrost increases the organic content in rivers, creating problems in village water treatment plants.

As for erosion, it isn't yet being tracked in a widespread, systematic way. But it appears to be accelerating in places where it is documented. A few years ago, the Beaufort Sea was cutting about 10 meters a year into the shoreline in Cape Halkett, in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska. That has recently doubled to 50 meters a year in certain places.

Increased erosion is presenting problems within the petroleum reserve. Erosion has the potential to expose old oil and gas drill sites and reserve pits, where contaminants are stored.

Farther east, near the producing oil fields in the Prudhoe Bay area, production pads, pipelines and utility lines have been installed near the shoreline.

There are other changes: Barrier islands along the Beaufort Sea coast have always moved: gravel islands are pushed by waves and wind. Those islands are moving faster now.

Narwhal Island, a small barrier island near Prudhoe Bay is being tracked by University of Alaska scientists, and is currently moving about 25 meters a year. That's up from the previous pace of 4 meters a year.

These events, among others, were cited as scientists and state officials who monitor the effects of climate change gathered for an information-sharing conference in Anchorage Nov. 25.

An immediate concern is for Point Hope, two officials with the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium said at the gathering. Community officials there worry that the lateness of the formation of shore-fast ice this year presents a danger that an early-winter storm surge could overwhelm a seawall and endanger the community, said Mike Brubaker, with the tribal consortium's health group.

The thawing of ice cellars in several villages poses different problems. In Kivalina, on the coast, and Noatak, which is inland, ice cellars that were frozen year-round a decade ago now thaw and flood in the summer, causing spoilage of food stored in cellars, Brubaker said.

There are some reports of ice cellar thaw as far north as Barrow.

Cellars are important for safe storage of subsistence foods that can be gathered only at certain times of the year. Increased spoilage increases threats of food-related sickness.

Another problem was cited by John Warren, with the tribal consortium's engineering group. The gradual thawing of permafrost around tundra lakes and along streams has resulted in more organic material in the water and more algae growth, which complicates the operation of water treatment plants, he said.

Tom Ravens, of the University of Alaska Anchorage's school of engineering, said coastal erosion in the Arctic is caused when storm surges pound at the base of coastal bluffs that are often 80 percent permanently frozen ice, with the remaining soil being very fine. Waves eat into the base of the bluff, destabilizing it until the bluff collapses.

While this process has occurred for many years in the Arctic, the warming of water temperatures in the Beaufort Sea appears to be causing it to accelerate. Ocean water temperatures appear to have increased 2 degrees to 2.5 degrees Celsius over 30 years, with higher increases in near-shore areas, Ravens told the group.

The retreat of the Arctic icepack, a consequence of climate change, is the likely cause of water temperature increases, because without the historic ice cover the open waters of the Arctic are receiving and trapping more heat from the sun.

Higher water temperatures also may explain the acceleration of the movement of Narwhal Island. While increased wave action, another consequence of less ice cover, could be partly to blame for the movement, it is also likely that the thawing of gravel in the island due to warmer water makes the gravel more mobile.

"These gravels were historically frozen but they are now thawing, which makes their transport easier," Ravens said.

Most barrier islands along the Arctic coast are in gradual motion and some may be accelerating. Aerial photos traditionally have been used to monitor changes in the coastline, but ice cover can complicate the interpretation of the photos.

UAA has tracked Narwhal Island with precision over the last few years through the placement of micro-instruments in the gravel. BP has supported the research because of its interest in the stability of offshore barrier islands and in support of offshore oil and gas installations.

Measuring of coastal erosion is done mostly at points near projects or communities. A broader, regional approach is needed to predict changes linked to plausible climate change scenarios so that locations of facilities near shores or rivers can be planned.

Ravens and David Atkinson, a professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks' International Arctic Research Center, who joined the conference discussion late, said they plan to apply for a National Science Foundation grant to develop a modeling for such a program.

John Madden, of the state Division of Emergency Services, told the group his agency is cooperating with federal agencies to deal with a range of climate change issues, including security and maritime safety, as more open water in the Arctic leads to increased navigation.

"The security issues are obvious. The ships are there, and we need to know who they are. There are increased risks that bad things could happen, from spills to strandings and medical emergencies," Madden said.

These are challenging enough problems with the smaller ships that have been up there, but when there are larger vessels in the area, the problems are compounded, he said.

A warmer climate has also made predictions of spring river breakups more difficult.

Officials in the past could predict the Yukon River breakup with some precision, but that is more difficult now. Monitoring the annual spring river breakup helps agencies warn river communities of flood danger from ice jams.

Alaska is at the forefront in dealing with climate change but many states are similarly engaged in monitoring risks, from increased extreme weather events, like the possibility of tornados in Vermont, to the drying up of aquifers to destabilization of structural foundations, particularly bridges.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers also is more focused on climate change issues nationally, said Jon Zufelt, with the Corps' cold regions engineering laboratory. The Corps is interested in sea level changes, he said. The agency is looking at the available storm and wave data for the last 100 years in southern California.

"If we build a structure for a 50-year design life, is that still true?" Zufelt asked. "Is it more like 35 years now?"

Madden said another problem is that federal disaster and hazard-mitigation programs do not fit well with the kinds of problems presented by climate change.

Current disaster programs are designed for events that are imminent or have occurred, like hurricanes. They can't be used for more longer-range threats, like climate change-related flooding that can be predicted, but are not imminent disasters, he said.

There are also hazard mitigation programs allowing government bodies to identify a threat that can be prevented. But these are specific and project-oriented, not general.

"The funding is good, but is for very limited purposes," Madden said.

Tim Bradner can be reached at

tim.bradner@alaskajournal.com.