This will be followed a year later by designations of critical habitat areas in the inlet, a senior NMFS official told the Resource Development Council in Anchorage Nov. 6.

Community and business leaders in Southcentral Alaska are concerned that new restrictions to protect belugas, which are declining in population, will affect industrial and infrastructure projects like oil and gas platform operations, marine shipping through the inlet, Port of Anchorage expansion and construction of the Knik Arm bridge.

Oil and gas companies are also worried that uncertainties of where critical habitat areas will be established could affect permits for offshore exploration drilling in Cook Inlet planned for 2009.

Kaja Brix, the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service's assistant regional administrator for Alaska, told RDC that the protection plan will include a proposed research strategy that the agency hopes will determine what is causing the decline.

NMFS will be looking at pollution and underwater noise, Brix said, but will also consider other factors, like predation by killer whales in the Inlet.

Marilyn Crockett, director of the Alaska Oil and Gas Association, said her members worry that the agency may target discharges from platforms operating in Cook Inlet, order restrictions on vessel movement for noise abatement and force the state of Alaska to remove offshore tracts from annual area-wide lease sales in the Inlet.

“The state has already restricted leasing along the west side of the Inlet in anticipation of critical habitat designations,” Crockett said.

Crockett said uncertainties in the scientific research could put industry operators in the position of not knowing what operations might be allowed. In the absence of research, the door could be opened for lawsuits by environmental groups claiming the agency isn't doing enough to protect the whales, she said.

Brix acknowledged there are a lot of unknowns about the Cook Inlet belugas and on how industrial activities affect whales in general.

NMFS scientists counted 375 belugas in the 2008 annual summer survey, down from 675 when annual population monitoring began in 1994, Brix said. In the 1970s, there were about 1,600 belugas, although Brix acknowledged the accuracy of the count is uncertain. The population count methodology used since 1994 has been consistent, so there is a high degree of confidence in the numbers since then.

Brix said it was known that subsistence hunting of Cook Inlet belugas in the 1990s were having effects and a steep decline in numbers from 1994 to 2000 seemed to confirm this. Hunting was halted in 2000, but the decline has continued, though at a slower rate.

Still, the population is continuing to drop at a rate of 1.5 percent a year, and NMFS estimates a 26 percent chance of the whales becoming extinct in 100 years.

“We consider this a highly endangered species, Brix said. Her agency gets concerned about a species if there is a 1 percent chance of extinction in 100 years, she said.

Cook Inlet belugas are considered a separate species from beluga populations in Western and Northern Alaska, which are healthy.

An RDC member asked if it was feasible to bring beluga whales from where the stocks are healthy to replenish the Cook Inlet population.

Brix said this is always possible but there are some genetic differences between the stocks and the agency believes that the Cook Inlet belugas, given protection, would be able to increase on their own.

However, she also said there is limited scientific research available on the Cook Inlet belugas to guide her agency in planning protections, or how to get the whales on a path to recovery. The research plan that will be submitted with the protection plan is intended to answer some of these questions.

When the critical habitats are established, NMFS must also include an economic analysis of the action, she said.

Brix said the endangered listing and establishment of critical habitat areas doesn't mean industrial activity would be halted. Federal agencies issuing authorizations or funding for projects will have to consult with the NMFS by preparing a finding on whether the whales will be affected and submitting this for review by the agency. Non-federal agencies will submit a habitat conservation plan.

By law the NMFS has 135 days to make a decision on these, although this can be extended with consent of the agency or private party, Brix said. Even if the whales are shown to be affected, it doesn't mean a project will be killed.

“Mitigation measures can be taken or the project can be altered,” she said.

One of the more troubling aspects of the beluga listing are vague standards covering critical habitat, Crockett said.

“Our members won't know what will be allowed and what won't be allowed, “ she said.

Crockett also said AOGA's members have been critical of the population survey methodology used by NMFS.

“The agency has not developed a reliable method to count juveniles, which are difficult to detect due to their gray color in glacier silt-laden waters. This leads to inaccurate and generally lower population counts,” Crockett said.

Also, the Beluga numbers have actually increased in the last four years, from 275 counted in 2005 to 375 in 2008, she said.

“Instead of relying on the last four years of data, NMFS cites as its basis for the endangered listing surveys it conducted from 1999 to 2008,” Crockett said.

Brix said that when critical habitat areas are established, her agency cannot allow adverse modification of habitat, which means any change to habitat to the degree that it will not allow recovery of the species.

NMFS scientists believe the beluga population would be in better shape if numbers increase to about 780, but the Endangered Species Act does not allow a specific number to be set, only that “the threat to the population is removed,” Brix said.

It is possible that the entire upper Cook Inlet, which includes an area of producing oil and gas platforms, could be established as critical habitat.

Studies have shown, however, that the belugas tend to use areas in Turnagain and Knik arms more intensely, as well as areas near the west shore of the inlet. That could mean the critical habitat areas could be more localized.