Analysis by Mike Bradner
For the Journal

n Alaska's legislative elections, the big question is which party will control will control the state House and Senate after Nov. 4.

Whichever way the voters tip the scales, the margins of control will likely be thin in both chambers. This makes some kind of arrangement across the partisan aisle practical, if not necessary. Coalitions may be transparent or less so.

However, we are in uncertain political times. Strange political winds are blowing nationally, and here at home we have no shortage of political wind-squalls. Alaska has suffered through two-years of scandal, beginning with the FBI raids of legislators' offices in 2006, followed by indictments, trials, sentencings and the media drama of the convicted departing for jail.

Local politics has created a situation of uncertainty as to how voters will react when they get inside the voting both. On the state level we are not immune from the chemistry surrounding Gov. Sarah Palin on the national ticket, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama, the unpopularity of President Bush, and the frustrations over the war in Iraq, not to mention the financial crisis.

Then we have the Palin factor on the presidential ticket, and the question of whether she will benefit Alaska Republicans and offset the chemistry of the corruption scandals.

We can count the seats in the House and Senate - who is who, their seeming strengths at the polls - and come up with a prescription that leans toward political balances near the status quo.

However, we are also in a climate where the voter, if he or she is going to markedly switch from past voting practices, may not make that decision until they are inside the voting booth.

Color all this “political uncertainty!”

The state Senate is a 20-member body with members having four-year staggered terms, so have half the Senate is up for election. But there are only three races realistically in play.

The current Senate has a thin margin of majority, one favoring Republicans by 11 to 9. We have a seat left open by the retirement of Fairbanks Republican Sen. Gary Wilken, which leaves two other seats under contest, one in Anchorage and one on the Kenai Peninsula.

Depending on outcomes of these three races, we could have a Senate split 10 to 10, or one with a 12 to 8 Republican majority, or a Democratic majority that might be 11 to 9.

Regardless, life on the Republican side is complicated by a split in the Senate Republican caucus during the present Legislature that has left entrenched animosities.

Few things seem certain in any new Senate organization, but in any coalition one probability is that current Senate Finance Committee co-chairs Sen. Lyman Hoffman, D-Bethel, and Sen. Bert Stedman, R-Sitka, seem likely to keep their positions in this powerful committee.

The key Senate race is between well known Fairbanks businessman and Democrat Joe Paskvan, and Republican Cythia Henry, a longtime Fairbanks assembly member. Both have raised all the dollars they need, so the outcome is up to the voters. Henry raised $62,902, and Paskvan $69,722 as of their 30-day reports.

In Midtown Anchorage is a race between incumbent Democrat Sen. Bettye Davis and Republican Dave Harbour, who is known in Anchorage business circles and is a former commissioner on the Alaska Regulatory Commission. Incumbent Davis has run ahead of Harbour in money raising, $49,092 to $19,405, as of the 30-days reports.

The third critical Senate race is on the North Kenai Peninsula, where incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Wagoner faces an unexpectedly aggressive challenge from Democrat Nels Anderson. Anderson has raised $69,800 as of the 30-day report compared to Wagoner's $33,755.

Republicans need to keep the Fairbanks Senate seat, hold onto the Wagoner seat, and then hope to win the Midtown Anchorage race. This would give Republicans a 12-8 edge in the Senate, perhaps enough to mend fences and avoid a coalition.

On the flip side, Democrats need to hold the Anchorage Senate seat and win the Fairbanks seat. This would give them a 10-10 split. Should Sen. Wagoner falter in his re-election on the Kenai, Democrats could conceivably get to an 11 to 9 majority. However, even if they, did a formal or informal coalition would be the likely outcome anyway.

The House currently has a Republican majority of 23 to 16 Democrats. Democrat Rep. Richard Foster of Nome has historically organized with Republicans.

If Democrats improve their position, Foster would likely organize with them. So Democrats need to improve their situation by two seats, and maybe fewer, to get into a negotiable position for a coalition, given that there is a cadre of Republicans that have been treated as an out-group of “questionable” party loyalty in past Republican House organizations. Also, the current Senate coalition has made a public precedent that eases this path.

Wrangell/Petersburg/Sitka: House veteran Rep. Peggy Wilson, R-Wrangell, is challenged by Democrat Lisa Herwald, of Sitka. Indications are that Herwald has mounted a significant challenge.

Southeast Islands: Rep. Bill Thomas, R-Haines, is challenged by Democrat Tim June, also of Haines. These two had a close race four years ago. This district stretches through the Southeast islands from Metlakatla in the south to Cordova on the north.

Juneau: Rep. Andrea Doll, D-Juneau, is being challenged by Cathy Munoz, a well known Juneau Republican and member of the school board with past service on the borough assembly. This district is the Mendenhall Valley area of Juneau, and has traditionally been Republican until Doll won the seat in 2006. This seat is at risk for Democrats.

Fairbanks: Rep. Scott Kawasaki, D-Fairbanks, is being challenged by Republican Sue Hull, a longtime member of the Fairbanks School Board. Kawasaki is a former member of the Fairbanks City Council and won his seat from a Republican, well-known Fairbanks businessman Jim Holm, in 2006. This is a seat Democrats say they can't afford to lose. As of the recent 30-day reports Kawasaki had raised $70,439 and challenger Hull $59,435.

Fairbanks: Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Fairbanks, has an aggressive challenge from Democrat Karl Kassel. This is an existing Republican seat and would be painful for Republicans to lose. However, reports are that Kelly is in trouble, not because of his opponent but because of his stance on certain issues. Republicans say they are worried because he has not mounted a strong campaign. Kelly has raised $31,000 compared with challenger Kassel's $47,737.

Mat-Su: Rep. Mark Neuman, R-Mat-Su, vs. Democrat Lewis Dischner. This race has drawn interest but odds are on incumbent Neuman. This district includes portions of Wasilla and runs north up the Susitna Valley along the Parks Highway. This is also Palin territory, where she is likely to have an effect on the ticket.

Anchorage: Rep. Craig Johnson, a Republican from South, faces a challenge from his 2006 opponent, Democrat Valerie Baffone. The race was close in 2006. Baffone leads in total fund raising at $55,000, with $32,585 since the primary, while Johnson has raised a total of $45,000, and $18,000 since the primary.

Anchorage: Rep. Bob Roses, a Republican elected in 2006, represents the Muldoon area in East Anchorage, and faces a run against his 2006 Democratic opponent Pete Petersen. Roses has raised $36,760, while Petersen has raised $35,517.

Anchorage: Midtown/South Anchorage is a critical race for the seat vacated by Rep. Kevin Meyers, now running for the Senate. This has been a Republican seat so the GOP wants to keep it. Running as the Democrat is Lynda Zaugg, who has spent a career in law enforcement. She ran unsuccessfully for the Senate four years ago. The Republican is Charissa Millett, who has worked as staff in Juneau for many years.

Anchorage: This is another Midtown/South Anchorage seat left vacant by retiring House Majority Leader Ralph Samuels, a Republican. Samuels didn't tell anyone until after the filing date had closed that he was not filing, as a bluff against Democrats who felt they could not beat Samuels. In the meantime, Samuels recruited fellow Republican Ron Jordon to run. After the primary, however, the Democratic nominee withdrew, and the party named Chris Tuck as his replacement. Tuck is a member of the Anchorage School Board and ran against Samuels in 2006. Jordon has not raised a lot of money, only $13,000, and Tuck has raised $14,000 by the 30-day report, after his late start. What happens in this race is unclear.

The shakedown in the House depends on whether Democrats can hold their existing seats and keep intact their existing 17 seats and even then win a few new ones. The odds may favor Democrats at least gaining a few seats, which will put a Republican majority at 21 and possible 20-20.

Mike Bradner is publisher of the Alaska Legislative Digest.