Who decides our elections? More pointedly this year, however, is who will decide Alaska's contentious U.S. Senate contest?
The simple answer is that it is the uncommitted - the independent and undeclared voters - who do. It is these votes for which Sen. Lisa Murkowski and former Gov. Tony Knowles, along with their political parties, are bidding. This is the great independent jury of voters who rules the fate of all candidates, statewide as well as in local legislative races.
Next, it is "super-voters" who count. There are always questions of which categories of super-voters, such as the elderly or voters who are business and professional people, are in play between the candidates.
Politicians bid for the favor of those, in whatever voter pool, who actually vote or whose voter history suggests they vote most frequently. Whether acknowledged or not, politicians represent more the interests and concerns of those who they know vote. If the voter cares, then the politician cares about the voter and his or her concerns. Voters show they care by voting consistently.
In the 2002 general election there were 54,892 registered Alaska voters under the age of 25. On the other end of the age spectrum, there were 38,215 registered voters above 65.
But the under-25 crowd voted less than 25 percent in the 2002 general election, casting roughly 13,000 votes. The over-65 group voted at a rate of over 65 percent and cast roughly 25,000 votes. To a politician, a senior vote is worth almost three times that of a 22-year-old. More pointedly, in term of spending campaign money, it is much more efficient to pursue older voters.
The result is that lawmakers listen carefully to senior citizens and respond to their issues more definitively. Additionally, the elderly are more aware of issues that affect them and react more strongly, as the political turmoil over the longevity bonus, drug costs and social security would indicate.
The youthful voter is inexperienced, less aware of issues and less likely to react even to issues that should concern them. The University of Alaska just raised tuition by 10 percent for the third consecutive year - a 30 percent increase. But no student group has spoken, and no politician has bothered to notice.
The point here is that one group - the seniors - votes, and politicians know it. The youthful voter gets patted on the head but gets no respect because young voters don't vote.
The political rules are these: Make no noise, and no one will hear you. Make noise but don't vote, and still no one will hear you. But make noise and vote, and you get heard.
On-the-books voters
On the official books right now there are 457,825 registered voters in Alaska. Of these, 238,000, or 54 percent, are registered as independents, declaring either "no party" or "undeclared."
This is a powerful nonpartisan jury, but the real figure - the number in this non-partisan group that can be expected to actually vote - is about 140,000. This approximates the highest expected turnout rate, roughly 60 percent, such as in a presidential election year. The discounted turnout is also true of those registered in political parties.
The percentage of turnout across the state and among groups varies. For example, areas of affluence have a higher turn out. Generally, poorer areas have lower turnouts. The turnout of older voters is better than that of younger voters. Military populations - resident voters or not - are counted as population in forming legislative districts, but many vote elsewhere, have rotated out of the state or don't vote. Many retain residency here to obtain their Alaska Permanent Fund dividend checks.
Data is also skewed because districts with high population turnover and migration have higher percentages of registered voters who are no longer actually residents. High birth rate districts, such as those in rural Alaska, will also have fewer registered votes because they have a higher proportion of population under the voting age.
In the end, what any politician wants to know in a campaign is who will actually show up at the polls on Election Day. Fair or not, some voters have more power than others do, or put another way, a lackluster voter gets lackluster representation.
The general rule is that, statewide, voter turnout at a November general election can be expected to at least double that of the August primary in any given year. But different population segments and regional constituents will range below and above this average.
But as usual, things are more complicated. Closed primaries and restricted ballots mask potential shifts among voters. Remember that in our recent 2004 primary, Republicans had good reason to go to the polls. They had a major contest in their primary for the U.S. Senate race, while Democrats had none. Naturally, undeclared and no-party voters were also attracted to the GOP primary contest.
Voting patterns track age
As previously indicated elderly voters are our best turnout voters. Conversely, younger voters, with exception of newly registered 18-19 year olds, have the poorest turnout numbers. New 18-19 year old voters turned out 34 percent in the 2002 general election, about 15 points under the statewide average. Twenty-year-old voters dropped to 24 percent, 22-24 year olds stayed at 24 percent, and those 25 to 34 years of age voted at 35 percent, still well below statewide averages.
The big jump in voting participation shows up in the 35 to 44 bracket, where voter participation approximates the state average at roughly 50 percent. This is the group with children, worried about jobs and careers, crime and their paychecks.
Elderly voters fall in the category that politicians call super-voters. They vote in every election. However, politicians can also identify from voting records individual super-voters. If you are inundated by campaign mail it is likely because you are a targeted super-voter.
Politicians and their pollsters care what super-voters think. In many respects, they have influence far beyond their numbers. There is also a reason why pollsters want to know whether you voted in the last election, how much you earn and your approximate age. They are probing for your voter reliability; and if you fall into the reliable category, then your opinion counts more.
Mike Bradner is a former legislator and Speaker of the House. He is publisher of Legislative Digest, a weekly report on the state legislature.
