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Web posted Monday, October 1, 2001

Futurist says average lifespan will be 120 years at century's end

By Nancy Pounds
Journal Assistant Editor

Health care of the future will involve capitalism with a moral conscience and unity among individuals, according to a health policy analyst.

"Humankind collectively in this century will assume responsibility for our evolution," said Leland Kaiser, lecturer, writer and associate professor emeritus at the University of Colorado at Denver.

"As a futurist, I can tell you that in the next 100 years we will witness the worst of humanity as we just did and the best and brightest," said Leland speaking in Anchorage Sept. 18 in reference to the terrorist attacks on the East Coast a week before.

Kaiser spoke to members of Commonwealth North at the Hotel Captain Cook.

"What I see coming is a new kind of capitalism, a caring capitalism," he said. "Now I think our challenge is to demonstrate to the world that capitalism is the solution."

Kaiser is president of Kaiser & Associates, a management consulting firm serving the health care industry. He earned a master's degree in medical care administration from the University of Colorado, plus a master's degree in clinical psychology from the University of Pittsburgh and a doctoral degree in social psychology and higher education from the University of Denver.

Kaiser perceives a change in American society which could yield improvements, but the onus lies with individuals. "Each of us is called upon to be an architect of the future."

Health care also could see changes. "The challenge in health care is not to treat disease; it is to design it out," Kaiser said. "The real challenge is not treatment. Health is what we want, not the treatment of disease."

According to Kaiser, healthy people are a consequence of successful functions in other areas of society.

"Health is a result. It's what happens when everything works."

To engineer a healthier Alaska, Kaiser called for groups to connect with each other rather than operating separately. There's no difference between churches, schools or other organizations, the lecturer said. However, such connectivity is difficult to achieve.

"America at this point in time is a collection of rugged individualists, yet the future will be owned by groups," he said. "All the groups must come to the table."

Kaiser charged the audience to view the world without country boundaries. "Lines are killing us. There are no lines in the universe," he said. "The function of lines is to divide; they also incur hatred and mistrust. We have to think in wholes, not pieces."

Kaiser depicted the health care industry today yet also envisioned its future.

"Make no mistake, medical technology drives health care," he said. "By the end of this century the average life span will be 120 years."

However, people desire healthy aging, he noted.

He chided trends which bemoan increasing health care costs.

"We still view health care as a cost to society," he said. "It's major contributor to the gross domestic product."

Kaiser encouraged people to help others. "Philanthropy is the moral dimension of capitalism," he said, defining philanthropy as either volunteer work or donations.

"Communism failed because it doesn't work. Socialism failed because it doesn't work. Now we will see if capitalism works because for the system to work it must work for everybody," Kaiser said. "The basis for capitalism is learning to share abundance. Sharing our abundance increases our abundance. It's greed that creates scarcity."

The lecturer called for action from companies. "I'd like to see every corporation have a foundation," he said, with 10 percent of profits designated to help others. "Tithing is spiritual economics. What is required is creativity, moral consciousness and will."

According to Kaiser, Americans needs to see a demonstration of what he calls caring capitalism. "I've been in many states, and I tell you this state has the best chance.

"Capitalism is the salvation yet it doesn't yet have a moral conscience," he said. "The challenge is: Could it happen here?"

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