Such is the takeaway that Anchorage Economic Development Corp. President and CEO Bill Popp would like the business community to infer from his organization's three-year economic outlook report issued July 28.

The report forecasts steady increases in personal income, wage and salary employment, and population.

"It's not huge growth, but it's very steady, solid growth," Popp said. "This forecast offers some cautious optimism for the business community."

According to the report, Anchorage's population was 290,588 in 2009, and is expected to reach 296,400 this year.

Wage and salary employment is expected to decrease slightly this year, from 151,000 in 2009 to 150,500 this year, but Popp said this is a statistically insignificant drop. And the next three years are expected to see growth beyond the 2009 level, with 2013 expected to see 153,900 employees.

Personal income in Anchorage is expected to increase, from an estimated $13.8 billion in 2009 to $13.9 billion in 2010. With steady increases over the next three years, the report indicates that in 2013, Anchorage residents will earn $15.2 billion.

Leading indicators that the economy in Anchorage is improving, Popp said, include tonnage at the Port of Anchorage and air freight numbers, both of which have increased this year.

Dock tonnage at the port, which indicates the volume of goods and materials that are transported there, is expected to increase from 3.8 million short tons in 2009 to an estimated 4.2 million short tons this year, according to the report. Steady increases are expected for the next three years, with nearly 4.4 million short tons in 2011, with 4.6 million short tons expected in 2012, and 4.7 million short tons in 2013.

Popp considers this to be an important indicator of improvement because it reflects greater consumption of and demand for goods such as clothing, electronics and food in Anchorage. It is often said that 85 percent of such goods in Alaska come through that port.

And while this may indicate increased consumer confidence and spending locally, air freight reflects much of what is happening economically nationally and internationally.

Air freight increased somewhat drastically this year, though Popp warns that a good portion of that growth can be attributed to artificially low freight figures seen last year thanks to the eruption of Mount Redoubt. Still, he believes figures would be at least slightly higher this year even without the interference of a natural disaster.

Freight figures soared from 2.2 million tons at Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in 2009 to 2.7 million tons this year, and growth is expected for the next three years, with an estimated 3 million tons in 2013.

Popp said that although planes heading for Asia were typically empty in the past when the industry was performing well, planes are now typically full as they head for that region. Increased exports, as well as a weaker dollar, account for this, he said. However, he said that export numbers were not finalized yet.

The local tourism industry is still relatively weak this year, Popp said, but increases in independent travel thanks to greater consumer confidence may help soften the blow of an estimated 100,000 fewer cruise ship passengers visiting Alaska in 2010.

Additionally, with the MS Amsterdam now calling at the Port of Anchorage, 13,000 passengers will be spending 16 hours at port, AEDC said. Cruise passengers previously had to fly into Anchorage to take cruises that began in places like Seward and Whittier, but they often didn't spend significant time or money in Anchorage.

According to the report, these passengers will spend a considerable amount of time shopping, eating and buying excursions in Anchorage. In fact, the report states that approximately one-third of passengers are reportedly buying shore excursions.

Last year saw a significant dip in passengers travelling through Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, with 2008's 5.34 million passenger figure dipping to nearly 4.86 million in 2009. However, an estimated increase to 4.92 million in 2010, and steady increases expected over the next three years, paint an optimistic portrait of the future of air travel into Alaska.

The report also said the Anchorage Convention and Visitors Bureau is reporting a 9 percent to 10 percent decline in convention sales this year, but advance bookings for 2011 and 2012 suggest a full market recovery.

McDowell Group, a research and consulting firm, collected the information contained in the report. AEDC and McDowell collectively provided the analysis.

Sean Manget can be reached at

sean.manget@alaskajournal.com.