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Web posted Monday, April 14, 2003

SARS has minimal effect on Alaska aviation -- so far

By Pat King
Alaska Journal of Commerce

It's been called a perfect storm disrupting air travel -- war in Iraq, a sputtering economy, airline bankruptcies and now, fear of SARS, the mystery illness dampening tourism in Asia.

To quell the storm, Congress may give the nation's airline industry a $3.5 billion rescue package, despite White House objections.

On April 2 the Senate began considering an $80 billion war cost bill when Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee, inserted the $3.5 billion for airlines.

As for SARS, or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, it is too soon to gauge the economic fallout.

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"It's a reason for concern, but not a reason for panic," said Dr. Jay Butler of Anchorage, an infectious disease specialist with the Center for Disease Control.

If SARS lasts for a few more months, Asian economies may be at risk for recession. But the impact on American pocketbooks can't be calculated yet.

"It's difficult to say, because there are so many other things going on, mainly the war," Butler said.

As of April 2, the number of SARS cases worldwide was at 2,223 people in 17 nations with at least 78 deaths, a 3 percent mortality rate.

"So most who get it do survive," Butler said. "This is not the Andromeda Strain."

In the United States, there have been 70 cases identified but no deaths, Butler said. And only one U.S. resident who contacted SARS required ventilation, and she recovered.

"This story isn't over yet," Butler said. "There's a lot that could happen. This could burn itself out, or it could become a common infection that we'll have to live with."

At Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, as at other U.S. airports, flights directly from the affected areas (Hong Kong and China's Guangdong province) with more than 10 people are met by health officials and given a brief screening procedure.

There have been no delays in Anchorage thus far, Butler said.

Last month the World Health Organization took the unprecedented step of warning travelers to stay away from Hong Kong and Guangdong province, a first in the WHO's 55-year history.

Meanwhile, the race is on to find the origin of SARS, and a vaccine.

"It is a topic of hot pursuit," Butler said.

Most evidence points to a virus, perhaps carried by pigs or poultry.

"If that is the source of the infection, and it can be transmitted, then that can be a huge economic impact," Butler said. "And there will be a huge interest to develop vaccines against this."

At Anchorage airport, two daily passenger flights from Hong Kong operated by Cathay Pacific Airways LTD have been diverted to Vancouver, B.C. -- but not due to SARS.

Cathay's decision to use Vancouver instead of Anchorage as a transit stop for its Hong Kong-Toronto flights is due to heightened security at U.S. airports caused by the war.

"They were asking the passengers to do too much, and we decided to divert," said Audene Barlow, Anchorage Airport Services Manager for Cathay Pacific.

"It is a customer service issue," she said. "It's strictly a Homeland Security Issue. We're not willing to download the aircraft and have my people go through full customs and immigration. Of course it's going to affect the economy, but there's not much you can do about a war."

Cathay has used Anchorage as a passenger transit stop since 1994 and Barlow indicted that the airline may return to Anchorage when wartime security levels go down.

"We're looking forward to this war being over so that we can revert back to our normal operations," she said.

Meantime, Cathay will still use Anchorage as a transit stop for its cargo flights, about 30 a week.

At China Airlines in Anchorage, general manager Frank Chen said the SARS outbreak has some passengers on edge.

"A lot of people are asking about this and some have canceled their bookings," Chen said. "It really brings an impact to the airline industry."

China Airlines uses Anchorage as a transit stop for five weekly passenger flights from New York to Taipei, and for about 34 cargo flights a week.

At Korean Air in Anchorage, Thomas Kuk in passenger sales said SARS hasn't impacted business yet.

"If there is news about an outbreak in Korea or an outbreak in Manila, there could be an impact, because people are going to get scared," Kuk said.

Analysts say the business risk is greatest for UAL Corp.'s United Airlines and Northwest Airlines Corp., because they are the U.S. carriers with the largest exposure in Asia, where most cases of SARS have been found.

United earns about one-fifth of its revenue from Asian routes, while Northwest generates roughly a quarter of its revenue from the region.

The Business Travel Coalition said on April 1 that 27 percent of the 180 U.S. corporations it surveyed were banning travel to parts of Asia because of SARS.

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