KODIAK — Warming oceans are coming with a high price tag not only the environment, but for coastal economies and the budgets of governments and private enterprises, says Bob Pawlowski, executive director of the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation.
There are costs to the environment and to day-to-day business operations, Pawlowski said, holding up his wallet to emphasize the point at a ComFish seminar March 16 on the impact of climate change on fisheries and coastal communities in Alaska.
The business challenges of a warming planet will include significant infrastructure costs, already seen in multimillion dollar issues of bank stabilization and mitigating coastal erosion, he said.
While Pawlowski said there are no firm numbers readily available, the Alaska Village Engineering Technical Assistance Report notes that any changes to help communities with coastal erosion problems will run in the millions of dollars.
“So if we look at potential risks of storms to breakwaters and piers, we realize those become more than million-dollar issues,” he said.
Pawlowski said he chose to raise that issue on global warming at ComFish because Alaska's fishing industry, particularly in Western Alaska, lies in a coastal zone that is very poorly mapped and has historically been protected from winter storms by winter ice on the beaches. In recent years the ice, which historically formed in October and November, has begun forming in December and January, so that coastal communities have less protection from storm waters eating away at the coastline.
“The real issue I want to see brought to the table is that we have perceptions of risk in coastal zone with climate change and loss of ice. And I want to see that federal and state agencies are in place to look at what data they need to provide guidance and accurate information so that the perceived risks can be mitigated or adapted to,” he said.
The cost to the environment itself would also be significant, said Deborah Williams, president of Alaska Conservation Solutions, who joined Pawlowski on the panel.
“We are the canary in the coal mine,” she said. “We are ground zero. No place in the U.S. or the world has seen as much impact (as Alaska with climate change).”
Williams said that with rising temperatures, the threats to fish and wildlife increase significantly because disease increases, food is harder to come by and there is more competition for it, while the habitat is also shrinking.
Williams said that the North Pacific Fishery Management Council cut its 2007 pollock harvest quota by 6 percent, due to fish migrating north to cooler water. “There is a huge migration north of species,” she said.
Meanwhile, melting sea ice has caused an area twice the size of Texas to melt away since 1979, and the Arctic could be ice free by the summer of 2040, she said. There are currently 184 communities at risk, “and we are reducing the map of Alaska as we speak,” Williams told fishermen, referring to the extensive coastal erosion. “Global warming is costly. Is this the world we want to bequeath to our children?”
Williams said that it is predicted that Alaska will be 25 degrees warmer by the end of the century, but said she is also optimistic about the nation's ability to act now. “Our country is at its greatest when it sees a crisis and reacts to the crisis,” she said. She also found optimism in comments from major oil companies, including Shell, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil, acknowledging concerns about global warming, she said.
She urged more effort to double fuel efficiency and the use of alternative forms of energy, including wind power. “Alaska can do 200 times the wind power we have now,” she said. “Kotzebue (wind energy project) has demonstrated that this is possible. Alaska has one of the greatest wind potentials in the world.”
The state should also look to be on the cutting edge of biodiesel fuels and ocean power, capturing wave and tidal energy power, she said.
The Alaska Climate Impact Assessment Commission, established by the Alaska Legislature, is currently holding public hearings throughout Alaska, and is to issue a report of its findings to the Legislature Jan. 10, 2008. Its efforts focus on climatology and oceanography, communities, tourism, resource development, economic, engineering and construction, maintenance, and fish, wildlife and land management issues.
Pawlowski serves on that committee as a representative of the Alaska Fisheries Development Foundation. Others include Sen. Gary Stevens, R-Kodiak; Sen. Donald Olson, D-Nome; Rep. Ralph Samuels, R-Anchorage, chairman; Rep. Reggie Joule, D-Kotzebue, vice chairman; and public members Lance Miller of the Juneau Economic Development Council; Stephanie Madsen of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council; Anchorage engineer Dennis Nottingham; Caleb Pungowiyi of Maniilaq Association; Michael Hurley of ConocoPhillips; and John Shively of Holland-America Line.
Margaret Bauman can be reached at
margie.bauman@alaskajournal.com.
