That's the word from Gunnar Knapp, an economics professor at the University of Alaska Anchorage's Institute of Social and Economic Research, who gave his preliminary report March 17 to fishermen attending ComFish Alaska 2006 in Kodiak.

Knapp told fishermen and others trying to discern what has been happening to Kodiak's economy that it is far too early to tell the full effects of crab rationalization, a federal plan that privatized the lucrative crab fisheries. He also said that because crab rationalization affects more fisheries than crab, the effects on the economy couldn't be measured simply by studying the crab fisheries.

While approximately the same amount of king crab was delivered to Kodiak during the recently concluded fishery under the new system, there was substantial consolidation in the fleet, resulting in significant job losses. Area businesses and community leaders were saying even before Knapp commenced his study for the city of Kodiak that they were feeling the economic effects of the fishery under new regulations.

One of the sore points of crab rationalization for a number of fishermen has been the decision of the North Pacific Fishery Management Council to give processors quota shares, dictating where fishermen must deliver most of their harvest.

Among those listening to Knapp's preliminary report was John Iani, a Seattle attorney who grew up in Kodiak and now represents many of the fish processing firms with processor quota shares. Iani asked Knapp if his report included any research into how processor shares might have affected changes in the economy. Knapp said his research did not cover that issue.

According to Iani, processors with quota shares didn't have anything to do with the consolidating of the crab fleet. "That was dependent on (individual fishing quota holders), and they could do whatever they want."

Jeff Stephan of the United Fishermen's Marketing Association in Kodiak, which represents a number of island fishermen, was critical of the way processors had their quota shares allocated.

Stephan said the processors used their influence to have measures in their favor attached to a congressional appropriations rider. He said subsequent efforts to get provisions to protect harvesters were not given the weight due to them.

Effects go beyond crabbers

Knapp said his research involves trying to understand the economic effects of crab rationalization. While he has done a lot of research on Alaska's economy and the fishing industry, he was in no way involved in development of the crab rationalization plan, he said. Knapp is to deliver a written, more-detailed copy of his report to the city of Kodiak March 28.

Knapp told fishermen who gathered to listen to his report at Kodiak High School that the effects of crab rationalization are broad, complex and difficult to measure. "There has been very rapid and dramatic consolidation of the crab fleet," he said. "There has been a dramatic decline in the number of crab fishing jobs.

"The remaining crab fishing jobs are a different kind of job," he said. "These jobs involve longer seasons, more income for those who get work, more certainty about income, a smaller share of the total income of the fishery, and lower earnings per day fishing."

Rationalization has also cut into sales of businesses that sell to crab boats and crab fishermen, he said in his preliminary report.

And crab rationalization has many other important economic effects that his study hasn't examined, he said.

Knapp told the fishermen there is simply not enough information currently available to measure the economic effects of crab rationalization on Kodiak with any great degree of precision.

Between 2004 and 2005, the number of Kodiak boats that fished for Bristol Bay red king crab fell from about 54 to about 23, a 57 percent decline, Knapp said his study showed. He estimated that 100 to 200 Kodiak residents lost crab fishing jobs.

His study also found that the revamped fishery cut into sales of some Kodiak businesses that supply and service the crab fleet, but that there was no obvious major decline for business to this sector.

Total sales of Kodiak businesses declined by 2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2005, Knapp said. Whether this was a result of rationalization, he could not tell for sure. The study did not factor inflation into the picture, he said.

Kodiak is a relatively large and diversified community that depends on many fisheries and other activities, which tends to dampen the effects of crab rationalization compared to those for other, smaller and less diversified communities, he said.