Whole kings, when available, are going for $16.99 a pound at New Sagaya, and if you don't like those prices, just wait until the halibut season opens in March.

“(The International Pacific Halibut Commission) dropped the quota, so the price will go up,” said Eric Lacambra, fish manager for New Sagaya, one of several popular Anchorage seafood retailers.

Maybe one out of five consumers will balk at the price, but the average order is still for 1 1/2 to 2 pounds of the succulent king fillets, the only fresh wild salmon available in February in Alaska. Customers are also buying frozen sockeye salmon steaks at $8.99 a pound, plus other frozen salmon, he said.

And there's plenty more where that's coming from, according to the Alaska Department of Fish and Game run forecast and projection for the 2007 wild Alaska salmon harvest. State biologists are anticipating a harvest of 108 million pinks, 40.9 million sockeyes, 24.8 million chum, 4.8 million silvers and 789,000 kings.

Still, fisheries economist Chris McDowell, who writes the Seafood Market Bulletin for the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute in Juneau, has words of caution in his February bulletin for ASMI, particularly for the huge anticipated sockeye run.

“It remains to be seen whether the domestic and European Union markets can absorb the majority of Alaska sockeye production at a price favorable for producers,” McDowell wrote in the report, now online at www.alaskaseafood.org.

“With a 41-million-fish projection for 2007, every nickel in ex-vessel price represents $12 million in statewide ex-vessel value,” he said.

McDowell notes that the 2007 projection for 789,000 kings is well above the 10-year average, but cautions that the actual chinook harvest in 2007 is likely to come in at or below the 10-year average of 663,000.

Projection methodology for chinooks relies heavily on the recent three-year average harvest in Southeast Alaska and on the recent five-year average harvest in central and westward regions, McDowell notes in the February edition of the Seafood Market Bulletin.

McDowell said the chinook harvest for Southeast Alaska is projected at 434,000 fish, but actual harvest will be substantially lower. The harvest in the region is limited by terms of the Pacific Salmon Treaty with Canada. And for 2007, allocation of treaty kings to Southeast fleets will be significantly below the state harvest projection for the region, he said.

While hatchery-produced chinook will bridge some of that gap, the region total will be well under 350,000 fish, he said.

McDowell said last year's actual Southeast harvest was 355,000 kings, while the harvest projection was 446,000 fish.

While accuracy varies from year to year, the overall salmon harvest projections are typically within 10 percent to 20 percent of the actual harvest, he said.

If the sockeye harvest projection of nearly 41 million fish is accurate, 2007 would be the fourth consecutive year of sockeye harvest above 40 million fish. For perspective, the Alaska harvest has exceeded 40 million sockeye in only 13 of the last 107 years, McDowell said.

Bristol Bay is expected to be a strong performer again, with a projection of 26 million sockeye, or 64 percent of the statewide sockeye projection total, down slightly from 70 percent in 2006. McDowell, himself a Bristol Bay sockeye fisherman, said the age-class composition of the 2007 Bristol Bay forecasts suggests a significant improvement in average fish size, and resulting fillet yields, compared to 2005 and 2006.

Elsewhere in Alaska, sockeye fisheries are expected to produce 14.5 million fish, a harvest improvement from 13 million reds last year. Cook Inlet is projected at 3.6 million sockeye and the Alaska Peninsula harvest at 4 million reds. Prince William Sound is expected to produce 3 million sockeye in 2007, a 10-year high for that region. That would include some 1.3 million naturally produced Copper River sockeye and about 1.7 million hatchery produced reds.

All these reds have some serious market implications, McDowell said. Since the canned sockeye market appears to be oversupplied after the 2006 season, another large canned pack in 2007 could create a multi-year surplus situation.

There is also generally strong demand for wild salmon in domestic and European Union markets, but those markets may not be prepared to absorb the lion's share of Alaska frozen sockeye, which has traditionally been destined for Japan, McDowell said. Production of frozen sockeye has been relatively steady in the last three years, but 2006 exports to Japan dropped by more than 20,000 metric tons, which represents more than half of estimated headed-and-gutted frozen sockeye production from the season.

The combined effect of strong sockeye production and the dramatic decrease in 2006 sockeye exports to Japan have created challenges for Alaska sockeye producers, reflected in prices paid to fishermen from the 2006 season. As of November 2006, the most recent state statistics available, sockeye was the only Alaska salmon species to show a decline in prices to fishermen for the 2006 season. Statewide average price was down from 73 cents a pound in 2005 to 67 cents a pound in 2006, McDowell said.

McDowell also expressed some caution about the projected harvest of 4.7 million coho salmon. The biological strength of the coho run was apparently below normal last year, producing a total harvest of 4.2 million fish, or 14 percent below projection, despite strong market conditions that pushed prices to harvesters to a 15-year high. However, if biological strength improves and strong market conditions persist, there could be a significant increase in Alaska coho production, he said.

On the other hand, the humpy harvest, projected at 108 million, could actually be significantly higher. Recent history and the strength of the parent year return in 2005 suggests that the actual 2007 harvest could be on the order of 130 million pinks or more, he said.

Market demand may play a role in determining the actual harvest of pink salmon this year, he said. In recent years, processors limited purchases of pink salmon in strong-run years, due in part to depressed wholesale prices for pink products. Considering the heightened demand and price for pinks, it appears that market demand will not be a limiting factor in utilizing the full harvestable surplus from the 2007 return, McDowell said.

The chum harvest projection of 24.7 million fish also would be a record, exceeding the 24.2 million pink run set in 2000, McDowell said. Projections for Southeast Alaska call for a harvest of 15.7 million chums, two-thirds of the statewide total, while Prince William Sound harvest is projected at 3.7 million chum, mostly from hatchery production.

Robert Thorstenson Jr., executive director of the Southeast Alaska Seiners Association, said harvesters there will be ready. While fishermen will be limited on the specific amounts of individual deliveries, processors are ramping up, he said.

Silver Bay Seafoods in Sitka, for example, will be able to handle 20 million pounds of capacity unavailable last year, and Wrangell Seafoods is ramping up to take about 20 million pounds, compared to 5 million pounds in 2006, he said.