The number of Alaskans 65 or older is expected to triple over the next quarter-century, greatly testing the state's available senior-focused facilities and services, according a state demographer.
Meanwhile, the birth and death rates for Alaskans is expected to remain fairly steady over the next 25 years, while the number of people moving into the state is projected to decline slightly, according to the February edition of the Alaska Economic Trends magazine, published by the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Alaska's population is currently at about 655,000, growing at an approximate rate of 1 percent a year since the early 1990s. At the current growth rate, if economic and population predictions remain steady, Alaska's population in 2029 could reach around 800,000.
The main change in the population demographics is in the age of the population. By 2029, the median age of Alaskans will increase from 33.4 years to 35.8, largely because of the aging baby boom generation and the increasing number of older women, the report said.
Because of that projected aging population, the men and women of working age will have a greater financial responsibility to the state's children and elders in the coming years, the report said.
In 2004, every 100 Alaskans of working age were supporting 46 children and 10 elders. By 2029, that same number of eligible workers is expected to support about 50 children and 31 elders.
About 41,600 people 65 or older live in Alaska, compared to about 36,000 people in 2000, an increase of nearly 16 percent in the last four years. By 2029, the number of seniors is expected to reach nearly 138,000.
The impact of this rapid growth will likely be greater in Alaska than elsewhere in the nation because Alaska has historically housed a younger population in comparison to most other states, so it has fewer resources built up to serve the elderly, the report said.
"We've got bigger problems than most places," said Greg Williams, the author of the study. "We've got a large population and we don't have the institutions built up for them. Other older states, like Pennsylvania or states in the Northeast and Midwest, have gone through this already. But we're not anywhere near prepared."
Many of the services available now were built in the pipeline construction days, when the state was inundated with extra money.
"The peak of the baby boomers coming to Alaska started with the pipeline and ended with the economic bust of 1985," Williams said. "A lot of state spending happened in the early 1980s; it was a rapid growth period. A fair number of people left after the pipeline, but we had a larger number of young people than the state had ever seen. And they're continuing to age."
Alaska has one of the fastest-growing senior populations in the country. More Alaskans of retirement age are choosing to remain in the state than ever before, Williams said. Younger residents are also moving their elderly parents to the state, adding to the aging population.
"People 50 and older are staying in Alaska, they're not flying south to Arizona or Florida," said Ann Secrest, communications director for AARP. "It's mainly a quality of life issue; things are better here now. We've got great medical facilities now."
But aging Alaskans, like the rest of the nation's older population, still have some major concerns, primarily in health care costs, she said.
Past generations of Alaskans generally traveled to Seattle or elsewhere in the Lower 48 for advanced medical care because such care wasn't available in the state. The state's major hospitals in recent years have spent millions of dollars to expand services and provide better equipment for advanced treatment.
Still health care in Alaska costs 40 percent more on average than in Seattle, Secrest said. And many of the state's doctors hesitate to accept new, or even existing, Medicare patients. Prescription drug costs are also becoming more of a concern than ever.
