The Anchorage Economic Development Corp. predicted that Anchorage will see 1,900 new jobs in 2006, a 1.3 percent increase over last year.
If the prediction rings true, it will mark the 18th consecutive year of job growth for the state's largest city, AEDC president Bob Poe told those attending the organization's annual Economic Forecast Luncheon, held Jan. 31.
Anchorage should employ nearly 149,000 workers in 2006. In 2005, some 147,000 people worked in Anchorage. Most were employed in the two sectors of trade, transportation and utilities, and in education and health services.
These numbers do not include more than 32,000 self-employed and 12,000 active duty military personnel in Anchorage.
The McDowell Group conducted the economic forecast for AEDC.
The largest job growth in 2006 should come from the health care sector, with 600 new jobs, Poe said. Construction should see another 400 workers, while the professional and business sector should increase by about 350 positions.
Anchorage's health care sector in 2005 saw 700 new jobs, a 5 percent increase. The sector should total about 15,000 workers by yearend, the study said. Anchorage is the heart of the state's health care needs, housing three major hospitals and the vast majority of medical specialists. The city's medical personnel also support the state's telemedicine programs that server rural communities.
Continued growth in this sector can be attributed to increases in federal spending, and to increasing health care needs of an aging population in Anchorage and the rest of the state. Advances in technology related to health care are causing the sector to seek out more specialized technical personnel, the study said.
A new hospital has recently opened in the Matanuska Valley, an event that may impact the Anchorage market in the future.
Construction remains brisk
Construction should add another 400 jobs this year, bringing the total to about 10,200 workers. Most of the new jobs will be in commercial and public-sector building, the study said.
Providence Alaska Medical Center expects to open new office facilities and a cancer facility this year, and work on a super Wal-Mart should begin this spring. The military bases continue to invest millions of dollars in housing and barracks facilities.
The public sector has several multi-million dollar projects slated to begin this spring, including work on the $103 million convention center, and the $376 million Port of Anchorage expansion. Several large-scale state highway projects are also planned.
Residential construction in Anchorage has remained flat in recent years, as developable land has declined in availability. Remodeling and expansion projects on existing homes, however, have helped the residential building sector.
Government and military expected to add jobs
Government jobs are expected to increase by 200 workers, the AEDC predicts. Government employment saw an increase of about 100 jobs in 2005, to about 30,000, primarily due to a boost in state workers.
Government employment does not include military personnel.
The 200-job increase should result from increased state spending, thanks largely to the budget surplus from oil revenues. The University of Alaska and the Anchorage School District both are expected to see increases in their budgets this year. Municipal government should see some new jobs as demand for basic services grows, while federal positions should remain flat at about 9,700 jobs, the study said.
More military personnel are expected this year, adding to the city's current 12,000 active-duty servicemen and women.
Fort Richardson plans a gain of 2,000 soldiers this year as part of a nationwide reorganization of the Army. The base is due to transfer a light brigade north to Fort Wainwright, but the addition of an airborne brigade and other new arrivals should total a net increase on the base.
A C-17 cargo plane division is expected this year at Elmendorf Air Force Base, and a new office building and other support facilities are currently under construction to support those airmen.
Retail and service sectors predicted to grow
The retail trade sector should add about 100 new positions in 2006. The sector currently employs about 22,100 workers. Retail generally grows with the population, though growth flattened during the last few years, especially with the trend of Anchorage residents moving to the Matanuska Valley.
More retail stores are developing in the Valley, allowing consumers to make purchases closer to their homes, Poe said.
Wal-Mart is expected to begin construction later this year on a super store in Anchorage, but that probably won't impact the job market until 2007, Poe said.
Leisure and hospitality, which includes hotels, restaurants and bars, should see another 100 jobs, bringing the total to 15,100 workers. Restaurant and bar owners should add employees as the tourism numbers and the Anchorage population increases, Poe said.
About 950,000 cruise ship passengers passed through the state in 2005, and that number is expected to be about 2 percent higher this summer. About a third of cruise passengers go through Anchorage, primarily through the airport or from cruisers who become independent travelers after their excursions are completed.
Hotel bookings for 2005 were strong, and advanced bookings for the year are high, the study said. There are no large-scale hotel construction projects planned this year.
Air transportation employment is expected to remain flat during the year, at about 3,700 workers, the study said. The Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport saw an 11 percent increase in cargo that was loaded or unloaded here last year. Transit cargo, which stops for fuel and moves on, saw a 14 percent jump last year.
This growth is expected to continue in 2006, as additional air cargo traffic moving into China and other Asian markets are scheduled to begin in the coming months, the study said.
Natural resource industries shows mixed signals
Oil and gas prices are high, but employment in the natural resource sector is mixed, the study said. BP Exploration (Alaska) Inc. recently announced plans to hire an additional 200 workers statewide by the end of the year, but Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. is expected to lay off 200 workers from around the state this year. Anchorage will be affected by both events, but how much is still unclear.
Shell Oil is also re-entering the Alaska market, a still-unknown impact to future jobs, Poe said.
The natural resources sector has about 2,000 direct workers, gaining about 100 in 2005. But the sector employs hundreds of others through contracts for consulting, construction, exploration and various other support services, Poe said.
AEDC predicts that about 500 new jobs will be created in support of the natural resources sector. Most of these jobs will be in engineering and business consulting services, the study said.
Other industries in natural resources, including mining, should see an increase of about 150 workers, Poe said.
Future growth may result in large-scale mining operations throughout the state that are in various stages of preparing to power up. Mining operations will increase Anchorage jobs, Poe said.
More jobs and higher wages
Worker wages are on the rise, Poe said. The average wage in 2005 was at $3,500 a month, about $50 higher than in 2004. Oil and gas workers made more than twice that amount. Local government wages saw a 14 percent increase, an additional $533 over 2004.
Issues to watch that may affect those job predictions include a gas line contract, continuing high oil prices and planned large construction projects.
Construction on a gas line is years away, but reaching an agreement would bring positive job growth to the Anchorage economy, the study said. High oil prices, which result in high fuel prices, have negative impacts on rural Alaska consumers, but overall, the state and the city of Anchorage benefit from the boost in revenues.
Melissa Campbell can be reached at melissa.campbell@alaskajournal.com.
