The retail sector, which includes restaurants, grocers and department stores, is expected to register strong job gains, second only to the services sector, according to a 2002 economic forecast by the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.

Last year retail posted stronger job growth than the three previous years, said Neal Fried, economist with the state Department of Labor. The sector gained roughly 1,000 jobs, with half coming from eating and drinking establishments, to bring the statewide retail job total to 49,900, he said.

National retailers will add to those totals this year. This month Fred Meyer will open its fourth Anchorage store, while Home Depot will open its second Alaska store in Fairbanks.

Another large retailer, Lowe's, is projected to open a new store this year in South Anchorage. Several restaurants are already in the works, aiming for 2002 opening dates. These include Applebee's in East Anchorage, Chili's Grill & Bar on the south side of town plus IHOP Restaurant and Boston Pizza in Midtown Anchorage.

Fried believes several factors could contribute to new retailers entry into the Alaska market.

In researching new store sites, assessing the community or state economy might be a factor, although store officials also could plan to open a store in an area before their competitor does, he said. Also, if the retailer already operates in Alaska, perhaps they gauge how well their other stores perform.

"I remember in the last boom we had people who said, 'What do they know that we don't?' " Fried said. The retailers probably did not have a tip on a major project that could benefit the state economy, he said. "Maybe they had more faith than we had."

Also, the incoming retailers have been industry veterans bringing a different view or seeing opportunities in the market, Fried said.

One industry analyst who follows Fred Meyer's parent company, Cincinnati-based The Kroger Co., believes the company builds stores where they will post strong financial results.

Kroger is adding stores in markets like Atlanta, where store officials see opportunity, said Charles Cerankosky, manager director at McDonald Investments of Cleveland.

Meanwhile, other retailers including Kmart and Montgomery Ward are struggling, he said. Officials of grocer Albertson's has said it plans to close some stores. By contrast, Home Depot, Walgreen's, Kroger and Wal-Mart continue to open stores, he noted.

"I think companies that are doing well such as Kroger and Wal-Mart are positioning themselves for future growth," Cerankosky said.

Kroger's earnings continue to climb although at a slower pace than last year, despite a slowed U.S. economy, he said.

"In U.S. retailing the pattern has been to grow through economic slowdowns," he said.

Fred Meyer has differentiated itself from other retailers much the way Target has, in competing with industry leader Wal-Mart, he said.

"Fred Meyer sort of parallels Target's approach and also it is a very good food retailer," Cerankosky said.

Fred Meyer differs from Wal-Mart, too, since it aims for high-quality products while Wal-Mart targets more price sensitive customers, he said.

"It's a well-run superstore," Cerankosky said.