World Trade Center Alaska held forecast seminars in Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau the week of Jan. 21. The Anchorage Economic Development Corp. held a forecast luncheon on Jan. 30 at the Egan Civic and Convention Center.

Both forecasts predicted flat growth - signaling a change in the economy - leaving some attendees wondering why they were dropping $35 to $45 for a lunch of rice and chicken to hear bad news.

At the World Trade Center luncheon in Anchorage, Commissioner Emil Notti presented a forecast on the state's rural economy, while Northern Economics president Pat Burden gave a statewide economic overview. That was followed by a Pacific Rim update by Sanjiv Sanghvi, president and CEO of Wells Fargo HSBC Trade Bank.

Greg Isham with Wells Fargo in Seattle spoke in Juneau about the economy and the Washington-Alaska economic connection.

Greg Wolf, executive director of World Trade Center Alaska, offered a rosy look at the state's exports in a presentation dubbed “Alaska's Role in the Global Marketplace.” Alaska's exports account for 10 percent of the state's gross product. That figure totaled $4 billion in 2007, Wolf said, but the shutdown of Agrium Inc.'s North Kenai fertilizer plant in December could mean that figure might dip slightly in 2008.

The Trade Center forecasted this year's exports will mainly come from seafood and mineral sources. Wolf said he expects the total to be somewhere between $3.6 billion and $3.9 billion.

Wolf said trade with China will continue to increase due to the declining value of the U.S. dollar.

Burden's statewide economic forecast was less optimistic: The outlook is flat at best, he said.

Construction and manufacturing will likely suffer a loss of $100 million, or a decline of 5 percent in total revenue. These sectors will see a loss of 1,100 jobs, a nearly 3 percent reduction over last year.

Finance and professional services will also suffer losses, about 1,600 jobs or about 2 percent year over year.

But it's not all bad news. The natural resources industry is projected to earn an additional $1.9 billion, with a 2.4 percent increase in jobs in 2008.

Both AEDC Executive Director Bill Popp and the Trade Center's Wolf predicted the sectors of government, hospitality and leisure, health, education, trade, transportation and utilities will remain steady.

The government, mainly military, will add 1,000 new jobs. Some 200 of those will be federal jobs. According to Northern Economics, the gross state product will increase by roughly $1.9 billion to $43.8 billion. About 95 percent of that figure depends on oil prices.

Transportation and logistics, related primarily to Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport, will see 2 percent growth. The United Parcel Service plans to add 350 new jobs. UPS announced it is making the Anchorage airport a pilot training center hub. The airport is responsible for one in eight jobs in Anchorage.

Popp said forecast figures are subject to change. He projected 2,500 new jobs in 2007, but only 1,500 were added.

Begich

“Alaskans are spoiled and corrupt,” Begich said, referring to the perception of Alaskans by outside politicians. “The future is bleak if Alaskans don't do something to plan for change.”

AEDC finished its presentation with a nearly one-hour talk by the author of “Life 2.0” and the publisher of Forbes Magazine, Rich Karlgaard.

Despite comparing Anchorage to landlocked Spokane, Wash., Karlgaard had some interesting perceptions.

“All it takes is one person, one company, to make change happen,” Karlgaard said.

The Forbes publisher related the story of Cirrus Design Corp. that looked at three locations before locating its manufacturing plant to Duluth, Minn. Cirrus, the manufacturer of turbo four-place private aircraft, has added hundreds of jobs to the city as a result of bank financing and support of entrepreneurial business.

“This is what I call the power of one and it happened because someone was able to think out of the box, and because the community banking institution did its job,” Karlgaard said.

While the forecasts, conducted by research groups Northern Economics and the McDowell Group, may not have presented the news everyone wanted to hear, they were still better than forecasts being offered in communities in the Lower 48, according to presenters.

Both organizations offered the disclaimer that any major disaster or swing in the economy could affect the year's outcome, which qualified the observation of flat growth.