The Alaska Department of Fish and Game is projecting a 2004 statewide salmon harvest of 196 million fish, a nearly 11 percent increase over the actual 2003 catch of 177 million salmon.
More higher-value sockeye salmon and fewer lower-value pink salmon are expected to be caught this year. That means the total value of the 2004 salmon harvest will also be up, if the projections come true, according to Chris McDowell, a Juneau-based seafood industry analyst.
"The biggest factor in the declining ex-vessel value of our salmon harvests in the past few years has been the smaller proportion of sockeye in relation to low-value species like pink salmon," McDowell said. "If the 2004 sockeye harvest does turn out to be 50 million as is predicted, that will change."
In 2003, 31 million sockeye salmon were caught statewide. The forecast for 2004 is for 119 million pink salmon, a decrease from 123 million caught in 2003.
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Harvest estimates are made with the best information available, but they frequently turn out to be wrong. Last year, fish and game officials predicted that 150 million salmon would be caught in 2003, while the actual harvest turned out to be larger by 25 million fish.
Most of the expected increase in the sockeye harvest will be in Bristol Bay, where a harvest of 35 million salmon is anticipated. McDowell wouldn't speculate on whether the larger catch will depress sockeye prices below the statewide average of 60 cents per pound paid in 2003, but he did say that markets for Bristol Bay sockeyes are now more diverse than they were a few years ago.
In 2003 about 60 percent of sockeyes caught in the bay were canned and sold mostly to European buyers. A few years ago most of the sockeyes were frozen and shipped to markets in Japan.
Japan is still a major buyer of frozen sockeyes, but more frozen and fresh sockeye is now being shipped to domestic markets, McDowell said.
A greater concern being voiced by fishermen is whether there will be enough buyers for sockeyes in Bristol Bay, he said.
The expected larger sockeye harvest is still good news, however. Even at 60 cents a pound, a typical 6-pound sockeye is worth $3.60 to a fisherman. That's a lot better than a typical pink salmon, which is smaller and sells for 10 cents to 12 cents a pound.
"We're talking dollars per fish with sockeye compared with dimes per fish with pinks," McDowell said.
