About 2,100 new jobs are expected in Anchorage in 2005, according to the Anchorage Economic Development Corp.
More than half those jobs will be in the health care sector. The leisure and hospitality, construction, trade and real estate industries are expected to see slight growth, AEDC president Bob Poe said at the group's forecast luncheon Jan. 27.
The McDowell Group, an investor in the AEDC, prepared the forecast for the corporation.
According to that report, preliminary information from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that the total personal income for all Alaskans totaled $22 billion in 2002. Of that, Anchorage's total personal income totaled $10 billion, with a per capita income of nearly $37,500.
Anchorage's per capita income was 14 percent higher than the state average and nearly 20 percent higher than the national average. Meanwhile, Anchorage's Consumer Price Index increased 2.8 percent for the first six months of 2004, compared to the national average of 2 percent. The consumer price index measures changes in prices for items such as food, housing, transportation and electricity.
In 2004, Anchorage had about 144,800 workers, a figure that continued a trend of steady increases since 1988, the tail of the economic downfall that resulted in a plunge in oil prices earlier in that decade.
In 2004, AEDC predicted 1,900 new jobs in Anchorage. The city was on track to see 2,100 jobs in the year, which would be an increase of 1.5 percent over the 2003 growth, according to the development corporation. 2004 concluded as Anchorage's 16th consecutive year of job growth.
Most information in the forecast does not include uniform military personnel or the self-employed. The report referred to information from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis stating that about 34,200 self-employed workers are in Anchorage, an increase of 1,200 over last year.
The city's unemployment rate through November 2004 was 5.2 percent, among Anchorage's lowest rates in the last few years, the report said.
Last year, 23 percent of the city's jobs were in the retail and wholesale trade industry. Some 20 percent were government jobs, while health and social services made up 12 percent of the jobs.
In 2004 the health and social services sector saw employment increase 7.5 percent, about 1,200 new jobs, Poe said. 2005 should see that same level of growth, considering the projected levels of government spending as well as the city's aging citizens and a growing population.
Poe also attributed the industry's outstanding growth to the major expansions of the city's hospitals, prompting Alaskans to seek their health care needs in town rather than travel Outside as was popular in the past.
Construction should add about 300 jobs overall, a reduction from the 500 new jobs added last year, Poe said. The bulk of the new jobs should be seen in the commercial building sector of the industry.
2004 fourth-quarter commercial building permits for Anchorage projects were valued at $79 million, an increase of $35 million when compared to the same period in 2003. Projects include a $49 million Providence Alaska Medical Center office building and a parking expansion, as well as housing projects on military bases, retail expansions and transportation improvements.
Residential building is expected to be flat in the coming year, however. Housing construction permits are down, and Anchorage lacks available building space. Fourth-quarter 2004 residential building permits were valued at $35 million, about half the 2003 fourth-quarter totals. Two housing projects are expected to begin work in 2005, the Sand Lake and Lake Otis gravel pit developments.
Leisure and hospitality, which includes accommodations, food services and drinking establishments, should add about 300 jobs this year, bringing the total work force to 15,200 workers, an increase of 2 percent, Poe said.
Anchorage currently has 8,068 hotel and motel rooms, including 873 that were added last year. Embassy Suites is expected to add 145 rooms to the market with a new hotel in midtown this year.
A growth in tourism is expected during the year, also adding to the job market. Cruise ship traffic to Alaska is expected to see a 5 percent increase to about 880,000 passengers. About a third of those visitors move through Anchorage. That growth promises to bring increased jobs, especially to restaurant and bar owners, the development corporation predicts.
Preliminary numbers show that 2004 hotel and motel bed tax receipts were $11.5 million, an increase of 12 percent compared to 2003. Anchorage voters in April will be asked to increase the bed tax to pay for a proposed new convention center.
The trade sector should see 200 new jobs. The retail and wholesale trade industry is expected to end the year with about 22,600 total jobs, the bulk of which is from the retail side. Home Depot has plans for two new Anchorage stores, one is to open this summer, the other in January 2006. Wal-Mart plans to open early next year a superstore in East Anchorage, so construction should begin sometime this year.
Government employment is also predicted to be flat overall this year. Federal jobs should decline slightly, while state government is expected to go unchanged. Local government jobs are predicted to increase, Poe said.
The federal government in recent years has tended to outsource more of its work, reducing its employment numbers. In Anchorage in 2004, there were 30,000 government workers, which included federal, state and local workers. This does not include uniform military personnel at the Army or Air Force bases.
The two bases house about 10,000 military personnel. Fort Richardson is expected to see an additional 2,000 Stryker Brigade soldiers this year, while Elmendorf Air Force Base will begin several construction projects to prepare for the C-17 cargo planes and its crews, expected in 2007.
Transportation and communication is expected to remain flat, at about 11,000 workers. Cargo originating from or ending up in Anchorage saw a decrease of about 4 percent last year compared to 2003. It should steady out this year.
Cargo passing through the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport saw an increase of 11 percent last year, a growth that the development corporation expects to continue in 2005 thanks to new trade agreements with China and growing demand in Asian markets.
Business and professional services, manufacturing and natural resources are all expected to remain steady during the year.
Oil and gas employment in Anchorage averaged about 2,000 working last year, and the corporation doesn't expect any changes in 2005. The industry's exploration and development plans may bring additional jobs to the construction and services industries, Poe said.
Poe pointed out two key issues to watch during the year that may affect job growth either way. Increases in the state's oil tax structure, notably the economic limit factor, or ELF, may encourage developers to drop work in marginal fields on the North Slope and other areas around the state.
Any forward movement on a gas pipeline construction will also affect job activity, Poe said.
