Each week, nearly 30 pieces of domestic economic data are reported and analyzed endlessly some of this data may be significant and market moving, but most is just noise.
Add on the round-the-clock commentary from cable networks programming, and you can see why investors face extreme information overload when it comes to their personal finances.
To help clarify the constant stream of reported data, the following is Wells Fargo Private Bank's economic forecast and some investment advice and strategies for 2010.
2010 Prognosis for U.S. Economy
The S&P Index hit its low for the latest bear market last March. Since then, we've experienced a market surge that has brought the index back considerably. Although the current rally has been impressive, it's important to keep the appropriate perspective: high consumer debt levels and persistent unemployment are likely to limit any significant economic growth.
As a result, we are still seeing a lot of uncertainty about the future, which is why the financial markets remain volatile.
Nonetheless, we think the economy is likely to continue its modest recovery in 2010. The economy appears to have finally stabilized, aided by successful government stimulus programs and an increase in restocking and export activity. Because companies allowed inventories to sink to unprecedented low levels, rebuilding the supply chain will probably drive growth in the first phase of the recovery.
In addition, the weak dollar is helping drive strong export growth, while soft consumer demand has slowed imports, suggesting that net trade also is likely to drive economic growth.
Even if we experience a better than expected recovery in the coming year, inflation and rising interest rates do not appear to be imminent threats; however, as an investor, you should still prepare for these risks well in advance.
Asset Allocation is Not Dead
To those who say asset allocation doesn't work, we respond with this: although asset allocation cannot protect your portfolio from losses or guarantee better performance, investors who remained fully diversified through the market upheaval are probably better positioned than those who tried to time the market.
Your long-term allocation should be well-diversified across and within the four main asset classes of stocks, bond, real assets (including real estate and commodities) and complementary assets, such as hedge funds and private equity.
While widespread inflation will probably not occur in 2010, it is important for you to consider the potential increase in these risks and protect your portfolio by implementing strategies designed to hedge those risks.
Interest rates will eventually rise in the coming years as the economy recovers and inflation becomes more evident. Investment in a well-diversified fixed income portfolio which may include domestic and foreign government bonds, corporate bonds, TIPS, and mortgages not only helps reduce overall volatility of returns, but also can help mitigate the negative effects of rising rates.
Potential Opportunities Overseas
To be a successful investor over the next decade, it's critical for investors to think globally.
The synchronized global downturn we've just experienced served to improve many of the economic imbalances that had been building for years. This means living standards in the developed world are likely stabilizing, albeit at relatively high levels, while many in the rest of the world continue to strive toward higher living standards.
Meanwhile, the emerging world is beginning a very long process toward developing better living conditions for its own citizens. In fact, in emerging markets, nominal consumer spending now exceeds spending in the U.S.
Eventually, we suspect those in emerging markets will become consumers of our goods and services, and the U.S. will play a large role in the future of global trade.
Based on these trends, we recommend investors have broad diversification in their portfolio allocations. A portfolio invested in a few domestically focused S&P 500 stocks in no longer adequate or prudent.
We strongly suggest that portfolios include some commitments, appropriately allocated based on your personal financial situation, to developed and emerging countries' economies. Although past performance is no guarantee of future results, global markets have been exceptionally strong over the past year. And even with this strong performance, many markets are still attractively valued.
There is No "All Clear" Signal
Many investors continue to wait for some type of "all clear" sign in the markets before they commit more assets. They are waiting for the markets to tell them that it's now safe to invest.
Unfortunately, the path of an economic and market recovery, particularly one from such a deep recession, is hard to anticipate. So there is unlikely to be any clear signal.
What you should keep in mind is where your investments are in relation to your long-term goals and whether your current asset allocation is likely to keep you on track to meet those goals. Remember that you may still have many of the same financial goals that you had before the market turmoil began.
Making a decision to meet regularly with your financial advisor, who can help you stay focused on your goals and lend you a sense of perspective, is the best resolution you can make for your portfolio and your future.
JoEllen Weatherholt is an investment manager for Wells Fargo in Alaska. She is a certified financial planner and member of the Financial Planning Association and Society of Financial Services Professionals. She can be reached at (907) 265-2150.