The economic forecast is roughly on par with new job growth in 2000, said AEDC research director Jeff Pokorny. "Although the December numbers aren't in yet, Anchorage appears on track to end the year with 134,000 people employed, a gain of 2,700 jobs or 2.1 percent over 1999," he said.

Pokorny presented the report at AEDC's annual economic forecast luncheon Jan. 10 at the Egan Civic & Convention Center.

On track with a national trend, more than half of the new jobs expected to be created this year will stem from the services sector, which could provide the largest number of new jobs, he noted.

"Services will still be the strongest sector," he said.

AEDC predicts employment gains in most industries except government, which should be flat.

According to Pokorny, probably the top story in the area economy last year was the realignment of oil company ownership on the North Slope. A lead story this year could be getting a gas pipeline project going, he said.

Despite a trend of job losses in recent years, the mining sector -- which includes oil and gas -- could see gains in 2001, according to Pokorny. The sector could add 100 jobs in Anchorage this year, he noted.

The construction sector proved to be a strong economic driver last year, and AEDC said permitted construction for the year should total more than $500 million.

Work on some major projects in Anchorage continue this year. AEDC cited work on the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport expansion, hospital additions, a new jail and construction at the Northstar Stevedore Terminal. Pokorny also noted that the state transportation plan calls for spending $104 million on Anchorage road improvements. Other construction projects for 2001 could include a 23-story building downtown, plus a new Home Depot store in East Anchorage.

Construction employment should add about 300 jobs in 2001, Pokorny said.

In the transportation, communication and utilities sector about 170 job losses at Reeve Aleutian Airways set the sector back, although Pokorny says his research shows many of those employees have been hired by other airlines.

In 2001 the air cargo industry is expected to receive a boost from FedEx, Northwest Airlines and United Parcel Service's new flights to China, which should come through Anchorage, Pokorny said.

The transportation, communication and utilities sector should add 350 new jobs in 2001.

The trade sector, which includes wholesale and retail trade, will feel the loss of about 100 jobs with the closure of the last three Alaska Marketplace stores early in 2001, the AEDC official noted. "The big box store expansion into Anchorage has slowed and except for the Home Depot expansion, not much major retail is expected to come online in 2001," he said. Employees for the store won't be hired until late 2001.

Between 100 to 200 new jobs could come from the trade sector.

Manufacturing in Anchorage this year will depend on work at Alaska Seafood International, according to AEDC. The seafood producer expects to hire as many as 100 workers, Pokorny said. ASI ran into financing trouble in 2000 and laid off workers, but announced a new financing package on Jan. 5.

This year the finance sector could see the results of Wells Fargo acquiring National Bank of Alaska when some office jobs are eliminated, Pokorny said. In 2000 existing home sales dropped about 10 percent due to higher interest rates, he noted. New home sales were down from 1999 and 1998 figures. However, interest rates fell in late 2000 and could continue to decline this year, Pokorny said.

AEDC expects the finance sector to increase by 100 new jobs this year.

The services sector, led by the expanding health care industry, will continue to grow in Anchorage, Pokorny said. Other economic drivers for this sector include tourism, computer services and temporary services, he said.

AEDC expects about 1,600 new jobs will be created by the services sector.

The government has held steady for several years, and Pokorny expects similar results in 2001. "The failure of the tax cap in November removed an air of uncertainty in the future employment levels of local government," he said.

Anchorage and the state could benefit from construction of a proposed National Missile Defense system, he said.

The government sector may be affected by continued privatization in health care fields and efficiencies in local government, Pokorny said.

Future events that could affect the Anchorage economy include lower interest rates, progress on a possible gas pipeline project and expected declines in school enrollment, he noted. Ship Creek development and a possible new convention center also could play a role in Anchorage's future, he said.