KENNEWICK, Wash. -- The demand for natural gas has grown by more than 150 percent in less than 20 years in the Northwest.
With nine new natural-gas-fired power plants either recently completed or under construction, analysts are starting to look at the long-term availability of affordable supply and the timely addition of pipeline capacity.
"Those are legitimate concerns," said Dick Watson of the four-state Northwest Power Planning Council, which will study natural gas in an 18-month review of the region's electricity systems.
Natural gas for home heat became popular in the 1980s, and consumption continued to increase in the 1990s with the start-up of new gas-fired power plants in places like Hermiston, Ore., Rathdrum, Idaho, and Vancouver, Wash.
The majority of new power generation under construction in the region now is also gas-fired because the plants are relatively inexpensive to build, considered more environmentally friendly than nuclear or coal power and are more certainin returns on investments.
The building boom has added pressure to identify new sources of natural gas to fuel the plants, along with meeting demands of residential and business customers.
The number of wells being drilled annually in the rich gas fields of Alberta and British Columbia has more than doubled since 1995, but the deposits tend to be smaller than earlier developments.
"You have to run faster and faster to stay in place," said Arne Olson, who edited a recent study of the regional natural gas industry done by the Washington Office of Trade and Economic Development's energy policy division.
Most agree there's plenty of gas available, both in Canada and the Rocky Mountains, but the cost will rise because more wells must be drilled to get the same amount of gas.
Alternative sources are uncertain. Constructing pipelines to new sources in Alaska and northern Canada, where weather could increase wear and tear on drilling rigs, can be very expensive.
Coal-bed methane could be another source for gas but it likely would be expensive and could present environmental problems. Deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico also could face environmental limitations.
Importing liquefied natural gas from Australia or the Middle East is problematic because one-quarter of it would evaporate in transit.
"There's a bunch of concerns we don't understand really well," said Mike Warwick, a Portland-based energy consultant for the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in Richland.
"All of those things look like they're pushing the price up."
Natural gas customers can expect increasing competition for supply in the coming years.
"The low prices we experienced a couple years ago are not likely to reappear," said John Jones, director of the Northwest Gas Association, which represents regional gas utilities.
Power plants are major consumers. A 1,300-megawatt project proposed for Wallula, now in the permit approval process, would by itself be able to burn 13 percent of the gas consumed in 1999 in the states of Washington, Oregon and Idaho combined.
Last year's opening of the Alliance Pipeline, which greatly improved the Midwest's access to well fields in western Canada, also introduced competition for the source of two-thirds of the Northwest's gas.
Transmission systems operated by Northwest Pipeline, which draws on Canadian and Rocky Mountain supplies, and PG&E Gas Transmission Northwest, which carries gas from eastern British Columbia through Eastern Washington en route to California, are running at capacity.
Incremental expansions are planned for each, but not enough to serve all of the plants receiving permits. Though costly, pipelines can be expanded with relative ease, either by adding compressor stations or laying new pipe parallel to existing ones.
From beginning to end, expansion projects can take up to three years. Industry analysts seem confident pipelines will be sufficiently expanded to satisfy demands for more gas. Still, the state study warns that if new gas fields and pipelines aren't developed in a timely manner, "the industry may experience price spikes leading to temporary economic dislocation, long-term upward pressure on gas prices, or both."
