KODIAK -- People are always proclaiming the demise of the fishing industry. For a state like Alaska, which provides more than half of all U.S. seafood and four times more than any other state, count on the industry having a solid, albeit bumpy, future.

Alaska has 55 commercial fisheries of all kinds from Ketchikan to Kotzebue, occurring at different times throughout the year. Skates, snails, roe on kelp, flounders, rockfish, urchins and sea cucumbers plus more familiar species like salmon, cod, pollock and halibut combine to make up Alaska's largest industry: commercial fishing.

The fishing cycle begins each Jan. 1 when longliners and pot boats set out for groundfish species like cod and rockfish in the Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea, followed by trawlers targeting pollock on Jan. 20. Simply put, except for the Gulf, where many fisheries continue to be strangled by closures to protect sea lions, Alaska's groundfish industry is booming.

In the Bering Sea, abundant supplies of cod and pollock, the "crown jewels" in world markets, continue to fuel confidence for the next few years. While other countries each year face reduced catch quotas, all eyes are on Alaska's fisheries, which continue to thrive. This year, nearly 500 million pounds of cod will be harvested from Alaska waters, filling orders in the United States and throughout Europe and Asia.

For pollock, Alaska's largest fishery, stocks are at an all-time high, allowing for a catch quota this year of roughly 3.3 billion pounds. Bering Sea pollock has an estimated value of more than $700 million annually. Looking ahead, less pollock from Russia has opened more doors in Japan for Alaska. Alaska groundfish is also making inroads in Europe, especially Germany, and markets are expected to increase.

The outlook for Alaska's whitefish industry is good, as stocks remain strong overall. None of the groundfish stocks is overfished or approaching an overfished condition, according to assessments by the National Marine Fisheries Service.

Commercial fishing caveat

Alaska stocks of pollock are expected to hit record highs with catch quotas this year at about 3.3 billion pounds. Pollock exports should increase in European markets including Germany. PHOTO/Marion Owen/For the Journal

To add to the angst felt so far by groundfish harvesters, the industry is afraid that herring and salmon will be next to take a gut shot from court-driven fishing closures, since those species have also been identified as being important to a sea lion's diet. Observers will be on salmon boats this summer to see how that fishery interacts with sea lions.

Crab

The Bering Sea snow crab fishery which begins in January should see a total harvest increase of 21 percent from last year. By contrast, officials have set conservative catch quotas for Bristol Bay red king crab stocks. PHOTO/Marion Owen/For the Journal

Bering Sea snow crab is the bread and butter fishery for a fleet of more than 200 boats. The stocks are "very healthy and increasing," according to crab biologist Brad Stevens, who for nearly 20 years has been tracking and studying all of the Bering's crab stocks.

"It looks like a reasonably good fishery for the next three to four years."

Stevens said red king crab stocks in Bristol Bay appear to be rebuilding, but the outlook remains "anyone's guess," and catch quotas are likely to remain conservative. In 2001 the catch quota was 7 million pounds.

Throughout Alaska, too many boats are going after too few crab, forcing major changes in the industry. Crabbers are working toward a buyout program to reduce the number of participants. At the same time, managers are crafting a limited-entry program for Bering Sea crab, which is likely to include individual fishing quotas for crab harvesters, processors and communities. It will be several years, but fallout from that unprecedented management plan will have sweeping social and economic impacts on coastal communities and be used as a model for many other important fisheries in Alaska and beyond.

Halibut

New seafood labeling requirements in Japan and Europe may help consumers distinguish between farmed and wild salmon possibly leading to increased purchases of Alaska fish. PHOTO/Marion Owen/For the Journal

Maintaining that visibility has never been more important, as halibut is quickly becoming the newest large-scale operation for fish farmers.

International aquaculture expert, John Forster believes technological and biological problems will prevent halibut from making it to market in large quantities in the next five years. But after that, all bets are off. Could halibut farming "totally trounce" wild harvests in the next 20 years? Absolutely, Forster said. He suggested the time frame could be much shorter. Halibut farms are now operating in Norway, Iceland, Scotland, Nova Scotia and Maine, to name a few.

As if that news isn't ominous enough, for the past year fish farmers in British Columbia have been successfully growing black cod in saltwater pens, and the first fish was set to go to market in December. Farmed black cod is foreboding to Alaska permit holders, who have long held a lock on the primarily Japanese market and usually fetch more than $3 per pound for the prized fish. There is a very limited supply of only about 25 million pounds of wild black cod each year in the world. Farmed production could soon pose some stiff competition for that market.

Following the March 15 start of the halibut fishery is Alaska's roe herring circuit, which usually begins in late March at Sitka Sound and ends in May at Nome. The outlook for roe herring is similar to last year, with the harvest projected at about 43,000 tons. There will be no fisheries again at Prince William Sound, Cook Inlet and Kah Shakes near Ketchikan because of low herring abundance.

Salmon

Salmon will always be at the heart of Alaska's seafood industry, and it's a sector many people feel is in a state of cardiac arrest. The value of the 2001 salmon fishery was $198 million, down more than $80 million from the previous year. That loss was fueled by fire sale prices for sockeye salmon, which bottomed out at 40 cents a pound at Bristol Bay, the lowest price in decades.

The wild salmon industry continues to be held in a stranglehold by supplies of cheaper, farmed fish. In just two decades, farmed salmon has taken over world markets, steadily eroding Alaska's market share, most notably with its No. 1 customer, Japan. Last year farmed salmon alone accounted for 58 percent of world salmon production. This year, salmon farmers will produce more than three times as much salmon as Alaska.

Industry economist Gunnar Knapp said: "Both the Japanese and the U.S. markets were overwhelmed, glutted with farmed salmon this year. The big question mark is whether farmed production will decline to ease that glut and bring prices back up."

He added that the recession in Japan and the United States will not be good for seafood in 2002, and, going into the new year, the value of the yen appears to be dropping.

Market expert Howard Johnson agrees. Since 1993 Johnson has published the Annual Report on the U.S. Seafood Industry, which summarizes the nation's market trends. Johnson believes Alaska will never totally lose the Japanese market, but it will take less fish in the future.

"Like it or not, the market wants fresh fish 365 days a year," he said. "The market is unwilling to drop farmed salmon for wild for a few months."

No one can argue that Alaska wild salmon is getting trounced in world markets, and there's plenty of short-term bad news. However, many creative efforts are afloat to revitalize and re-invent the wild salmon industry. On the immediate front, small but steady market inroads are starting to show results in Asia and Europe, thanks to the tireless team of the Alaska Seafood Marketing Institute, the state's lone marketing arm for all seafood. Federal dollars fuel ASMI's efforts to create more markets overseas. The state of Alaska does not provide funding to ASMI for marketing salmon in the United States, where experts agree there is incredible untapped opportunity. However, every Alaska salmon fisherman pays a 1 percent tax on the value of their catch, and those funds are used specifically for domestic market programs. Alaska processors also pay a voluntary tax for promotions of all species.

What to do about Alaska's salmon industry which is regarded as one of the best managed fisheries in the world?

Johnson responded: "Less fishermen, bigger boats in places like Bristol Bay and fewer hatchery fish unless there is a market for them. The industry has to get more efficient. Develop a domestic market for fresh and frozen sockeye. There isn't one today."

Knapp agreed that fewer fishermen must harvest Alaska salmon more efficiently by methods that cost less and result in better quality.

"This trend has occurred in all agricultural industries," Knapp said in a newly released paper, Challenges and Strategies for the Alaska Salmon Industry.

"The basic problem we face in the Alaska salmon industry is that our management system is not designed to create a competitive and cost-efficient industry. Instead, it is designed to achieve social and political goals of spreading the wealth of the salmon fishery, of maximizing jobs and incomes for Alaskans. For a period of time, the system worked well, but it isn't working well any more. If an industry isn't profitable, there isn't any wealth to spread."

Knapp suggests that salmon could be harvested according to a rights-based system similar to individual fisheries quotas. There is no silver bullet, and Knapp said the starting point is "to remember that we face many different challenges and that the nature of the challenges varies by fishery."

On the immediate front, new seafood labeling requirements in Japan and Europe will help consumers distinguish between farmed and wild salmon. Such product differentiation, combined with more environmental awareness by consumers, appears to be resulting in increased purchases of Alaska salmon in those regions.

Looking ahead

Despite ups and downs in both availability and overall value, Alaska seafood exports continue to post strong gains each year. Seafood exports were up 21 percent, totaling more than $1 billion through third quarter 2001. At home, Americans continue the trend of eating more seafood, with consumption reaching 15.6 pounds per person last year, an increase of 2.3 percent from the year before, tying the all-time high set in 1989.

Commercial fishing retains its title as the state's most important industry, in terms of employment and income. The seafood industry still translates into 16 percent of the state's basic sector employment, and fully 47 percent in private sector employment, ahead of mining, oil and gas, forest products and tourism. In fact, the seafood industry is second only to the oil industry in the revenues it provides the state.

If there's one thing Alaska has for sure, it's fish. For seafood, the bottom line means being watchful of what's going on at the bottom of the ocean.

Alaska's abundance is a gift from nature, guarded with protective zeal by those entrusted with its care. Fish and shellfish from Alaska are renewable resources. For an industry that feeds a hungry world, that's got to mean a bright future.

Kodiak-based free-lance writer Laine Welch can be reached via e-mail at (msfish@ptialaska.net).