What many don't realize is that behind all the headlines hollering about dwindling markets and endangered species, people around the world are eating more seafood -- 15.3 pounds per person, a boost of 3 percent from the year before and closing in on the record of 15.6 pounds set in 1989. According to the just released "Fisheries of the United States 1999," the official yearly report from the National Marine Fisheries Service, U.S. markets have expanded, U.S. fishermen saw their landings bounce back last year, and their catches were worth more at the docks.

That should mean good news for Alaska because it provides nearly 60 percent of our nation's fish and shellfish -- four times more than any other state, as well as millions of pounds to the rest of the world. Last year Alaska waters yielded almost 5.6 billion pounds of seafood, worth $1.2 billion at the docks.

Alaska's seafood industry includes 55 commercial fisheries that use a wide range of gear types, and occur at different times throughout the year from Ketchikan to Kotzebue. Unlike other parts of the world, where fish supplies are diminishing, most of Alaska's major fisheries are rated as "generally stable in abundance." Of course, each fishery's success is affected by the timely convergence of managers, markets and Mother Nature, but here's a glance at what's on the horizon.

Pollock and cod

Starting in January, pollock, cod and other groundfish provide Alaska's biggest catches, and harvests of those species will remain abundant in 2001 and beyond. For example, surveys show that pollock stocks in the Bering Sea have increased 40 percent over the past year, easily allowing for a harvest of 1.4 million metric tons. Alaska pollock is the raw material for McFish sandwiches and other breaded entrees, while Asian buyers value pollock for its roe. Pollock is also prized for the top quality surimi it produces, which is manufactured into such popular items as imitation crab and shrimp.

The healthy stock assessments for Alaska's pollock fly in the face of environmentalists' claims that commercial fishing is depleting those "important" food sources for endangered Steller sea lions. "How can sea lions be starving when Bering Sea pollock stocks are up 40 percent?" quipped Unisea president John Iani. Another industry expert huffed: "Forty thousand sea lions is hardly a species on the brink of extinction."

Alaska's major competitor in the world market for pollock is Russia, but catch quotas there are expected to remain on a downward trend for some time.

Likewise, Pacific cod quotas almost everywhere in the world continue to be slashed, but Alaska's stocks are strong enough to sustain an increased harvest this year in the Bering Sea of 188,000 metric tons. Gulf of Alaska harvests for pollock were also boosted this year to 105,810 metric tons, while cod catches increased slightly to nearly 68,000 metric tons.

Unfortunately, if last year's pattern is any indication, those catch quotas may not be reached due to new fishing restrictions intended to protect Steller sea lions. The new rules force smaller, shore-based boats to fish in unfamiliar waters 20 miles offshore, and landings of pollock dropped dramatically in Kodiak, Sand Point and Dutch Harbor. That resulted in a loss of millions of dollars in landing taxes to those communities, and residents fear a slow economic bleed -- especially since cod is now also considered an important part of a sea lion's diet.

"We're all worried to death. We can't plan anything," said Mitch Kilborn, manager of Western Alaska Fisheries in Kodiak.

Federal and state managers will continue to be tasked this year with fine-tuning an entanglement of new fishing regulations designed to protect sea lions.

As the 2001 season began, a patchwork of staggered fishing times and variable catch quotas was being stitched together, just to get the pollock and cod boats out on the water. It's still anyone's guess how groundfish trawl, longline and pot boats will fare this year. Worse, the fishing industry is terrified that herring and salmon will be the next to take a gut shot from court-driven fishing closures, since those species have also been identified as important to a sea lion's diet.

Halibut

Looking at a less politicized realm, starting in March halibut will continue to be a bright spot as fresh markets expand across the United States. Alaska catches this year could be near the record of 63.5 million pounds, up 10 million from last year. Prices remained high and steady, averaging about $2.50 per pound during last year's eight-month season. Market watchers predict the halibut fishery will remain strong, although there could be some resistance at retail counters to the continued high prices of Alaska halibut.

Meanwhile, farmed halibut operations in Scotland, Norway and a handful of other countries are already providing small lots of fish to European markets. Alaska halibut needs to position itself solidly in domestic and world markets as the farmed flats expand rapidly in the next few years.

Roe herring

Also in the early spring will be roe herring fisheries, and state fish managers predict this year's harvest will be about 42,000 tons, up slightly from last year. Once again there will be no fisheries at Kah Shakes/Cat Island, Hobart Bay, Prince William Sound and Cook Inlet due to low stock abundance. In reality, Alaska's roe herring catch is likely to come in under projection this year since fewer buyers will be on the grounds in westward fisheries. Only five floating processors will be processing herring at the state's largest fishery at Togiak (Bristol Bay), and there may be no buyers for Kuskokwim fisheries, as well as Norton Sound.

Total North American roe herring harvests, including San Francisco and British Columbia, are pegged at 71,480 tons, down from this year's take of 75,540 tons.

Alaska's crab fisheries are a mixed bag, with some stocks rebounding and others still on the wane. Vessels vying for Alaska's biggest bounty of snow crab (opilio Tanners) will hit the grounds Jan. 25, competing for a harvest of just more than 27 million pounds. That's similar to last year's catch -- which was valued at $55 million at the docks, -- but things bode better for the future.

Brad Stevens, a federal crab biologist who has participated in Bering Sea surveys for more than a decade, said smaller crab appear to be recruiting into the snow crab fishery. "Another wave is about four years off. We seem to be heading uphill on snow crab and we're crossing our fingers that it'll be really good," Stevens said. On a related front, the bairdi Tanner crab population appears to be bouncing back slowly after a five year hiatus, and it's "looking hopeful, although a fishery is pretty far off," Stevens said.

For red king crab, biologists expect the Bristol Bay harvest will remain below 10 million pounds for the foreseeable future. Conversely, the outlook for king crab at St. Matthew Island and the Pribilofs is dubbed "dismal." Alaska king crab continues to take hits in the market from Russian imports. However, that resource is in big trouble, and it's likely to be out of the running very soon.

Southeast Alaska continues to sustain the state's largest Dungeness crab fishery, although managers fear they're starting to see some downward trends in some districts. As with other fisheries in the state, Southeast is feeling the squeeze of too many boats going after too few crab.

"It's the same story as elsewhere," said state biologist Gretchen Bishop. "We have highly capitalized fisheries and we're probably starting to overharvest. We're doing OK, but we need to cut back in a way that works best for everyone."

Salmon

Salmon will always be at the heart of Alaska's seafood industry -- and it will continue to face off against farmed fish, which now sets the standard in the world marketplace. Forecasts for this year's season will trickle in during the next few months, but the outlook for Alaska's most lucrative species -- sockeye -- calls for fewer fish. At Bristol Bay, home to the world's largest red salmon run, the summer forecast calls for a catch of 15.6 million reds, down 30 percent from 21 million taken last season.

Japan remains by far the largest market for sockeye, and buyers continue to play Alaska's frozen pack against Chilean coho, which has largely taken over the same markets. Lower salmon runs in recent years, combined with a weaker market in Japan, have reduced the value of producing frozen reds. That means fewer floating processors will be available to freeze fish this summer at Bristol Bay, and instead buyers will shift to shore-based canning operations.

Kodiak-based free-lance writer Laine Welch can be reached by e-mail at (msfish@ptialaska.net).